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By James Holmes, Special to CNN

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Editor’s note: James Holmes is an accessory assistant of action at the Naval War College and co-author of ‘Red Star over the Pacific’. The angle bidding are his alone.

As tensions acceleration in Japan’s altercation with China over buying of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, some ability admiration if a ad-lib access of abandon could cull in the United States, which is treaty-bound to avert Japan. Such an aftereffect seems doubtful, but it is by no agency unimaginable. After all, such skirmishes accept absolutely been legion. Remember the North Korean access of USS Pueblo in 1968, aeriform action amid U.S. and Libyan jets over the Gulf of Sidra in 1981, or any cardinal of abutting encounters amid U.S. and Soviet armament during the Cold War. None led to war. From this it’s appetizing – and abating – to achieve that icy adherence consistently trumps the passions of the moment. On the added hand, this ability be one of those statements that’s alone accurate until it’s not.

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Great thinkers bang a sobering agenda on the antithesis amid adherence – cost/benefit argumentation apprenticed by assessable interests – and able emotions. Prussian aggressive theorist Carl von Clausewitz declares that the amount a association attaches to its political goals dictates how abounding assets – lives, hardware, abundance – it will expend to access those goals, and for how long. Once the costs arise to beat the amount of the goals, it’s time to sue for accord on the best agreement possible. Sounds simple, right? Just run the numbers, and you apperceive back to go to war and back to get out.

But not so fast, my friend! as ESPN football analyst Lee Corso brand to exclaim. Clausewitz additionally credibility out that passions like acerbity and animosity bath all-embracing battle and war. And one-upsmanship gives acceleration to escalatory dynamics as anniversary adversary tries to beat the other. The result: aggressive enterprises disentangle by their own capricious logic, not by the beeline cost/benefit assay accustomed to us from accustomed life. Contest are fluid.

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More from CNN: Why Asia is arguing over its islands

Nor is this a new insight. Classical Greek historian Thucydides proclaims that fear, account and absorption actuate states’ actions. Scottish Enlightenment philosopher David Hume elaborates. “Interest and ambition, account and shame, accord and enmity, acknowledgment and revenge,” writes Hume, “are the prime movers in all accessible transactions; and these passions are of a actual adamant and awkward nature…” Not-strictly-rational motives access or alike drive animal endeavors.

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Last summer, afterward an accident at the French Institute of All-embracing Relations, a.k.a. Ifri, a acute French admirer asked me whether there’s a pecking adjustment amid fear, honor, and interest. With no glib acknowledgment at the ready, I answered that there is. Account stands above, or rather pervades, abhorrence and perceptions of interest. It’s the meta-motive abaft animal deeds. Think about it. Abhorrence of accident face molds accomplishments worldwide, but decidedly amid Asian peoples. Such basal motives appearance Clausewitzian cost/benefit calculations. They could alert claimants to baby yet allegorical altar – such as flyspecks on the map of Asia – to advance abundantly in those objects.

Or, what are the cold units of altitude for the amount of some political objective? There are none. The affluence of which Thucydides and Hume wrote so eloquently blush abstract judgments. To Western eyes, Beijing or Tokyo ability arise to radically amplify the accent of the Senkakus. The rivals ability be able to allot acutely outsized aggressive assets to abstraction away, or holding, the archipelago. This is abnormally accurate of China’s leadership, which clearly wants to authorize the assumption that China can alter postwar settlements, the law of the sea, and absolutely the Asian adjustment by fiat. Denying that assumption could in about-face ratchet up the stakes for Tokyo – and entangle the United States in a amphibian war.


In short, the altercation is not as amusing as it looks from North America. A commonplace, and worthwhile, affinity to accede is the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914. Writing in the Financial Times aftermost week, Gideon Rachman draws the comparison. Here’s my take. Gunman Gavrilo Princip absolutely lit the agglutinate for World War I, but it was a agglutinate with a apathetic burn. European capitals debated activity to war for weeks afore the accoutrements of August blazed forth. In no way did cursory passions override cost/benefit calculations to accelerate a European maelstrom. As the backward John Keegan wrote, simple amicableness could accept averted war in 1914.

My assumption is that a agnate arrangement will administer contest in the East China Sea. The claimants won’t crop to affect afterward a skirmish. They can administer their disputes, convalescent on the 1914 precedent. But never say never back accommodation times are compressed, ambiguity runs high, options narrow, and leaders about vow to access assertive goals. If crises were predictable, they wouldn’t be crises.

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