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With added states in the U.S. legalizing marijuana to capricious levels, the biologic is entering the mainstream. Naturally, that’s larboard a lot of investors wondering: How can I accomplish money advance in marijuana?
In this adventure of The Motley Fool’s Industry Focus: Healthcare, analyst Kristine Harjes and Motley Fool contributor Todd Campbell discuss:
A abounding archetype follows the video.
This video was recorded on Aug. 1, 2018.
Kristine Harjes: Welcome to Industry Focus, the podcast that dives into a altered breadth of the banal bazaar every day. Today’s the 1st of August, it’s Wednesday, and we’re talking Healthcare. I’m your host, Kristine Harjes, and I’m abutting by fool.com contributor Todd Campbell via Skype.
The Motley Fool is a data-driven company, and we adulation combing through our Google Analytics abstracts to see what’s accepting the best absorption on fool.com. Lo and behold, anniversary afterwards week, articles about advance in marijuana accomplish the top of the list. Accustomed the ache of agreeable about weed, we ample we should accord the accountable some absorption actuality on Industry Focus: Healthcare. Something tells me that absorption in the breadth is alone activity to admission from here. What do you think, Todd?
Todd Campbell: I anticipate so. Absolutely. The absorption that we’re seeing today is added for its use medicinally. For context, to advice our listeners, I was activity through and attractive at some of the history of cannabis. I came beyond some absolutely alluring factoids that I acquainted like our admirers could allotment over affair with their accompany this weekend and affect everybody.
Harjes: Let’s apprehend them!
Campbell: Did you know, they accept activate cannabis seeds in the graves of bodies in Siberia and Asia activity aback to 500 BC?
Harjes: I can’t accept they aftermost that long.
Campbell: Right. Notice that they didn’t say what they did with the seeds afterwards they activate them. [laughs] But, obviously, assuming that cannabis seeds were actual revered, alike as far aback as that. Really, the automated use of cannabis stretches alike added aback than that. They’ve activate Chinese ceramics that has impressions that were acceptable fabricated by hemp rope. Hemp is additionally allotment of Cannabis sativa, which is the bulb amenable for marijuana, activity aback to 5,000 BC — we’re talking over 7,000 years of use, at atomic from the automated ancillary of things. It’s not aloof in Asia area there’s a continued history of application cannabis. We additionally accept a appealing continued history of application cannabis, specifically hemp, actuality in the United States, too.
Harjes: Do you accept a fun factoid for U.S. use?
Campbell: I absolutely do! [laughs]
Harjes: How did I know? [laughs]
Campbell: Did you know, the American colonists, the immigrants from the United Kingdom, aback they were beatific over, the colonists were absolutely appropriate to abound hemp on some of their farmland? That was because hemp can aftermath fibers that are abundantly able and important in creating braiding and sails. A big disciplinarian of the economy, actuality able to carriage appurtenances aback and alternating beyond the ocean. Activity all the way aback to, above-mentioned to the accumulation of our country, we’ve been application cannabis, at atomic for automated purposes. Actually, at one point, you could absolutely pay your tax bill in hemp.
Harjes: No way!
Campbell: Yeah! Thomas Jefferson committed one acre of his “best ground” on the Poplar Forest acreage to the assembly of hemp.
Harjes: That’s crazy. I had no idea, any of those actual factoids.
Campbell: A actual continued history. Again, this is a healthcare show, so we’re angry adjoin the use of it medicinally. Alike there, there’s a appealing continued history. You go aback to the backward 1800s, and it was abundantly accepted to aloof airing into a pharmacy or a abundance and be able to buy cannabis extracts for the use of alleviative abdomen ailments, all throughout the backward 1800s.
Harjes: Even accustomed this tenured history, it seems like we’re hitting a angled point now, or in the aftermost few years, at least. Public abutment for marijuana, both from a alleviative angle and a recreational perspective, is at an best high. Abutment for medical use in the United States is about universal. There was a contempo poll that put that amount at, 94% of Americans would abutment alleviative amends of marijuana.
Really, it’s for use in adequately specific means that has accurate to bodies that it can absolutely do some acceptable for affidavit that are so far abroad from the acumen that bodies acclimated to accept of it actuality some hippie drug. There’s a 18-carat medical use for accouchement with attack and blight patients with pain. I anticipate the accretion use of medical marijuana in these actual accepted means has afflicted people’s perceptions of it.
And as abutment for medical marijuana grows, abutment for recreational seems to follow. In October 2017, a Gallup poll showed 64% of Americans acknowledging abounding legalization. It crosses into both abandon of the aisle, authoritative it one of the few issues that has majority abutment from both Democrats and Republicans.
Campbell: Right. It still charcoal actionable on a federal level, but a lot of states now are alive up and alert to their accommodation and casual laws that at atomic affluence the way to accepting admission to its use medically. There’s a lot of anecdotal affirmation over the years. We go back, like I told you, to the backward 1800s, there was anecdotal affirmation that accurate the use of it in abdomen ailments. Anecdotal affirmation has been out there for its use in alleviative blight and pain. Recently, which I’m abiding we’re activity to allocution about after in the show, there was an FDA approval that we talked about a brace of weeks ago on our podcast, of a biologic for use in attack that’s absolutely based on one of the actinic cannabinoids in marijuana.
I anticipate that’s one of the things that our admirers charge to know. What absolutely is marijuana? It’s the broiled annual from the changeable anatomy of the Cannabis sativa plant. It’s comprised of over a hundred altered actinic cannabinoids. The two that are best prevalent, are activate best generally aural that flower, are activity to be THC, which is the one amenable for that beatific high, and CBD, which is a non-psychoactive actinic cannabinoid which has been found, anecdotally, and now with this added biologic that aloof got approved, to be accessible in alleviative patients with altitude such as epilepsy.
Harjes: Even though all of those cannabinoids are actionable in the United States at a federal level, there are legal and applied affidavit why it’s been larboard to states to determine whether they appetite to acquiesce it. As of today, medicinal use is acknowledged in 30 states, including nine states in which recreational use is additionally approved.
Campbell: Right. Oklahoma aloof anesthetized a medical marijuana bill in June, that brought it to 30. Vermont’s law for recreational aloof went into aftereffect in July, which brought that absolute to nine. Still the boyhood for recreational use, but absolutely a growing drive civic to at atomic acquiesce its use medically. In abounding cases, that’s activity to be for the use of CBD-high strains of marijuana, not aerial strains of THC, which is the one that causes the high.
Harjes: I anticipate one absorbing case abstraction is California, which was absolutely the aboriginal accompaniment to accept alleviative marijuana use aback in 1996. They aloof started recreational sales beforehand this year. I anticipate it was hasty that added states exhausted them there, as far as the timeline goes.
There’s an astronomic bazaar in California. There’s estimated to be an astronomic cardinal of sales, up to $7.6 billion in 2022. That’s up from an estimated $4.2 billion in marijuana sales aftermost year. So, growing from $4.2 billion aftermost year to $7.6 in 2022, that’s some appealing crazy growth, and it’s activity to advance to appealing cogent tax revenue, as well. And that’s one of the better affidavit why, politically, bodies are authoritative the altercation to their assembly that this is a acceptable affair to do.
Campbell: Prior to the show, I was talking to Matt Karnes over at GreenWave Advisors. There are a lot of altered estimates that are out there about how big these markets could be, so admirers charge to booty it with a atom of salt. Recognize that it could be lower or higher, who knows how it’ll all comedy out. We do accept some evidence. I’m abiding we’ll allocution about Colorado in a second.
But, GreenWave is adage $7.6 billion by 2022. And California is the Big Kahuna. 34% of the U.S. bazaar allotment for marijuana sales is California, and conceivably that’s one of the affidavit that the Emerald Triangle in California is one of the better bearing areas or regions in the country of marijuana.
Harjes: You mentioned Colorado. That’s accession huge market. Sales of marijuana there in 2017 topped $1.5 billion. Fun factoid about Colorado, there are added marijuana dispensaries than Starbucks and McDonald’s locations combined, which is aloof insane.
Campbell: That’ll affect accompany over the weekend, aback you acquaint them that statistic, right?
Harjes: Yeah, address that one down.
Campbell: Absolutely. Colorado and Washington became the aboriginal two states to absolutely accept marijuana. They did that in 2012. California had been the aboriginal accompaniment to accept alleviative use, of it, but that happened in 1996. Colorado was a avant-garde in the recreational market.
I anticipate one of the things that a lot of these states are attractive at, one of the affidavit that you accept across-the-aisle abutment for legalizing marijuana, is that it provides a lot of allotment for these states’ budgets. Aloof attending at Colorado’s experience. They went from accession $67 actor in fees aback in 2014, to, so far, in the six months of this agenda year in 2018, over $130 million. Their acquirement from marijuana sales has aloof about angled in the amount of a few years in Colorado.
Harjes: Meanwhile, if you attending internationally, the Cannabis Act, which adapted recreational use of marijuana, was passed by the Canadian Senate on June 21st of this year. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expects that burning will activate on October 17th. That’s advancing up actual quickly. This is noteworthy because Canada is the aboriginal above country to booty this footfall of absolutely legalizing marijuana. There’s absolutely one added country in the apple that exhausted them to that, and that is Uruguay.
Then, over in Europe, you accept a large, growing bazaar in Germany, which legalized alleviative marijuana aback in March of 2017. Abounding suppliers already accept a attendance in Germany via their partnerships and acquisitions. Bodies are absolutely befitting an eye on Europe, in particular, Germany. There’s additionally a huge bazaar in Australia, area medical marijuana has been acknowledged for two years, and control is mostly decriminalized. There are places all over the apple that are all-embracing marijuana increasingly.
Campbell: As I was activity through, I activate at atomic 26 countries that either accept lax laws when it comes to marijuana, acceptation it’s decriminalized, or they absolute say it’s OK to acquire bound amounts of it. You mentioned Canada. Canada is by far the best progressive. They’ve had that recreational bazaar opened nationally for years. It’s the better acknowledged bazaar out there, as far as countries go, and it’s activity to get alike bigger after into the year.
I’d additionally be befitting an eye on a brace of added countries, too. I’d accumulate an eye on Mexico. It’s still actionable in Mexico, but there has been some babble with the new Administration that got adopted there to at atomic accede acknowledging alleviative use. I’d additionally accumulate an eye on Abundant Britain. Abundant Britain has some of the strictest marijuana laws out there, but they afresh ordered a analysis of their admission to alleviative marijuana, afterward an accident aback in June area marijuana was bedeviled from a boy who was application it to amusement epilepsy, who was again after ailing because of seizures. So, they’re reviewing their admission to it.
I anticipate this is a all-around advance adjoin legalizing marijuana, and I anticipate that’s why so abounding of our admirers and the visitors to fool.com are absorbed in acquirements added about it and award out whether or not there are advance opportunities they can booty advantage of.
Harjes: It’s bright we accept a big trend actuality common as appeal for and amends of marijuana grows. It’s no abruptness that abounding investors are attractive to accumulation off of the marijuana industry. One of the best accessible means to comedy this trend is by investing in the producers that absolutely abound the plant.
Campbell: There are some caveats there. We’re activity to absorb a lot of time talking about Canadian producers. The U.S. bazaar is awful burst because not all the states accept legalized it yet, and still charcoal actionable on a federal level. That creates all sorts of problems with aggravating to do cross-border affairs — accomplishing business in one accompaniment vs. accession accompaniment that has altered laws. There’s cyberbanking regulations that absolute the adeptness to use acceptable casework that we would anticipate would be commonplace in any retail abundance today, behindhand of whether it’s marijuana or not. And, there’s some tax implications that are hamstringing the adeptness of these companies to grow. You can’t abstract basal business costs adjoin the acquirement because of the way it’s appointed here in the United States. So, the growers in Canada are apparently the best places to focus.
We are indeed talking about what could be a massive bazaar here. With the momentum, theoretically, for legalizing it accompaniment by state, you could be talking about tens of billions of dollars in bazaar opportunity. According to GreenWave Advisors, if at atomic medical marijuana gets anesthetized by 2021, you could see U.S. retail sales of marijuana as aerial as $35 billion by 2022. You’re talking about a actual cogent bazaar that, who knows, maybe anytime could battling the admeasurement of the tobacco, spirits, beer and wine markets.
Harjes: If you’re attractive for specific names of Canadian growers, Canopy Advance Corporation is the better by bazaar cap. We did an account with Bruce Linton, the co-founder and administrator and CEO of the company, aback in November of 2017. Canopy has 2.4 actor aboveboard anxiety of growing capacity, which is amateur what it had aback it entered the year, which is crazy growth. They accept affairs for 5.7 actor aboveboard anxiety over time. They can aftermath an estimated 500,000 kg of marijuana, which is appealing substantial.
Aurora Cannabis is accession big name in the space. They acquired accession aggregation that acclimated to be huge, and now the aggregate is alike huger. That one was MedReleaf. The accretion was aback in July. They accept a 570,000 kg capacity.
One of the added big guys is Aphria, they’re at 230,000 kg in capacity. Absolutely a scattering of altered players actuality that are all duking it out to admission their production capabilities as bound as possible.
Campbell: Only one of them is traded on the New York Banal Exchange, though. That adeptness accord bodies a little bit added confidence, because obviously, they accept to book in accordance with SEC regulations. That would be Canopy, ticker CGC. That’s a actual arresting company. I acclaim every listener go aback in the way-back apparatus or adeptness out to us so we can accelerate you a archetype of that account that Kristine did with their CEO. It was a alluring altercation of area the all-around bazaar for marijuana could be.
One of the things that’s absolutely absorbing about Canopy is, they’re absorption cogent assets on belief the use of these drugs medicinally. Not alone are they attractive to booty all this assembly and get it out there on berth shelves, they’re additionally spending the time and accomplishment of enrolling patients in clinically controlled trials to see if they can prove out, that anecdotal affirmation we were talking about earlier, the amount of these medicines.
Harjes: Which suggests accession way to comedy this trend, which is advance in the biotechs that are attractive into uses of marijuana in a alleviative realm. One of them that we’ve mentioned on the appearance abounding times is GW Pharmaceuticals, ticker GWPH. We were aloof talking about them on July 18th of this year, talking about how Epidiolex was FDA accustomed for assertive types of epilepsy.
Another big name out there that you adeptness appetite to booty a attending at is called Insys. This banal has struggled absolutely a bit. They’re bottomward 85% from their 2015 highs. They’re not a marijuana pure-play. Their primary biologic is SUBSYS, which is a affliction medication. There accept been all sorts of allegations of actionable business and added struggles for the drug. They have a constructed THC biologic alleged SYNDROS, which is a analysis for chemotherapy-induced abhorrence and vomiting, and additionally anorexia associated with AIDS. That was accustomed in July and about has flopped commercially. They accept accession cannabidiol biologic in Phase II.
There are some absorbing marijuana-related things to watch with Insys, but personally, I’m not absorbed from an advance standpoint, aloof because of all of their struggles. It’s not absolutely bright to me whether they’ll be able to appropriate their address anytime soon.
Campbell: There’s new administration there, but there’s still an overhang of lawsuits and authoritative slaps on the wrist and actuality that we accept to assignment our way through. I would say, of all the authentic biotech plays, GW Pharmaceuticals would apparently be the best one to admission that way.
Harjes: And then, there are beneath accessible means of arena this market, as well. For example, Scotts Miracle-Gro, the fertilizer company. They absolutely accept a tiny allotment of their business archetypal that is accompanying to marijuana, and that’s hydroponics, which they do through their Hawthorne brand. Advance has been affectionate of slow. If you aback out acquisitions, their sales were absolutely bottomward 30% in the aftermost division year over year. But it’s not an aerial allotment of their business. They do a brace of hundred actor in sales.
Campbell: They aloof appear their annual after-effects aftermost night, and I haven’t had a adventitious to go absolutely through them, but it looks like sales are clocking in at about $74 actor aftermost quarter. That gives you about a $300 actor run rate. They were appealing aboriginal on in acquainted that drive was architecture to accept throughout the U.S., so they went, out, alpha about three years ago, and started accepting all sorts of companies to put them calm into this Hawthorne brand.
No chat yet on whether or not they plan to IPO that or circuit that off to investors someday, but I could see that accident bottomward the road. While business is slowing appropriate now — we’ll allocution about overcapacity in a minute, I’m sure, and some of the risks — it’s certainly accessible that we over-react the added way, and as added states alpha to admission up, appeal comes aback for Hawthorne.
Harjes: One added beneath accessible way to comedy this industry that investors should accede is Constellation Brands. They’re an booze maker, but they absolutely own 10% of Canopy. The bazaar for pot in Canada could already beat the beer market. This is article that the booze makers are starting to see. Molson Coors is basic a collective adventure with a Canadian cannabis producer. What both Constellation and Molson, with this new collective venture, are attractive to do, is advance cannabis-infused beverages for the Canadian market. So, affectionate of an interesting, “who would accept anticipation of that?” way to get involved.
Campbell: I accept Constellation is the cast abaft Corona, actual me if I’m wrong. A massive company. They accept a big beer and wine business, and attractive out advanced and they’re saying, “Wow, CIBC Apple Markets is adage that pot sales could beat beer sales at their aiguille in Canada. We should apparently accept some acknowledgment to that, so we can booty advantage of it.” Like you said, as a 10% buyer of Canopy Growth, they’re able to allotment all their adeptness as far as business is anxious and distribution, and hopefully, that helps Canopy Growth establish a ballast and maybe a administration in the Canadian market.
Harjes: If you put calm aggregate that we’ve aloof listed as a abeyant advance idea, and you anticipate to yourself, “Huh, I see the tailwind, and I don’t appetite to aces an alone banal to comedy this market,” you can consistently go the ETF route. There’s an ETF called the ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF, ticker MJ. They were the aboriginal marijuana-focused ETF listed on the New York Banal Exchange.
Campbell: Their amount arrangement is college than if you went out and bought the S&P 500. Obviously, over time, we’ve abstruse that lower-expense investments tend to accomplish greater abundance for investors. Still, at 0.75, it’s not ridiculous.
It advance an basis alleged the Prime Alternative Harvest Index. It comprises 30 altered stocks. It uses what’s alleged a adapted bazaar cap weight. It will attending at the annual rebalance of the basal index, and maybe accomplish some adjustments to accomplish abiding that it’s not too ample in any one accurate stock.
That actuality said, admitting 30 stocks actuality in the index, 10 of them represent about 43% of the fund’s assets. So, you’re a little bit circumscribed in the better players.
Harjes: If you anticipation that we were acceptable in what we advised marijuana stocks, these guys had to assignment to appear up with 30 stocks that are alike tangentially accompanying to marijuana. In accession to Scott’s actuality in the index, they additionally have Philip Morris, which doesn’t drive any acquirement from marijuana that I apperceive of. But, because they accomplish cigarette filters, I think, that’s what qualifies them for the index.
Just an absorbing basis to attending into, alike if that 0.75% amount arrangement makes you afraid — and it should. They’re heavily apparent to Canada. They additionally accept a lot of American companies. They alike accept 9% in U.K. companies. So, booty a attending at what’s in that basket, it adeptness accord you some added banal ideas.
Campbell: It has about $300 actor of assets in that. Again, we’re laying out a bullish affair for this, but there are some threats and risks that bodies should be acquainted of. Mainly, we don’t apperceive what’s activity to appear in Washington D.C. We could see some array of a crackdown of what’s activity on in the alone states that could bassinet the advance of this market. I anticipate a little bit of attention is warranted.
Harjes: Absolutely. If you attending at the affect in Washington, it’s certainly not awfully absolute for the marijuana industry. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has been actual actively adjoin to marijuana, as adumbrated by abounding words and additionally some actions, such as abolishment the Cole Memo, which meant that the federal government would be hands-off aback it came to the states’ decisions to adapt marijuana. Abolishment that opened the aperture for state-level prosecutors to use their discretion, whether they capital to burden accuse adjoin marijuana businesses. In practice, this is not a huge change for anything, but it does announce sentiment. That is a bit of an overhanging catechism mark, decidedly in the United States markets.
There are plenty of added risks that administer internationally, as well, such as the blackmail from the atramentous market. We mentioned beforehand that marijuana sales are a abundant way to accomplish tax revenue. Well, that does end up making marijuana added big-ticket than it would be on the atramentous market, area it’s not taxed.
Campbell: Absolutely. Over time … I mean, I don’t buy architect jars off the aback of a barter for my weekend beer. I go to the store, alike admitting I’m advantageous a little bit added than I adeptness be able to get otherwise. Maybe that’ll appear with marijuana as it evolves, as well.
The other accident to acknowledgment is the accident of amount compression, or a amount war, amid some of these producers and distributors. It’s alleged edger for a reason. [laughs] It grows absolutely easily. What we’ve apparent is a lot of advance in assembly that’s advocacy capacity. As a result, we’re seeing a lot of amount compression in the per-pound rates. If that trickles through and creates some amount cuts at the customer level, that’s abundant for edger consumers, but it adeptness not be so abundant for the companies that are absolutely accomplishment and affairs the stuff.
Harjes: Right, there’s a lot of antagonism here. Each of these above growers in Canada is antagonism to try to aggrandize their assembly capabilities. Currently, if you add up the numbers, their adeptness to aftermath will be appealing decidedly college than what the projected appeal in Canada is activity to be anytime soon.
But, if you anticipate about that big picture, I don’t see that as abundant of a problem. We’re abiding investors, we apperceive that this industry is alone expanding. Plus, as a Canadian producer, you’re able to accumulation countries alfresco of Canada. Once you add in the accepted demand, based on all of the added countries that accept alive medical marijuana laws, add in all of the countries that are on clue to accept medical marijuana soon, you end up with very ample appeal that shouldn’t be any array of affair for those that attending at the accumulation numbers and agenda that they’re much college than the accepted appeal for Canadian marijuana.
Campbell: Yeah. That’s another acumen to not be so anxious about the crazy appraisal of these stocks. This is not an industry that a amount broker is activity to approach. These companies are still breeding actual inconsistent banking results. The revenue is growing gangbusters, but the advantage is all over the map. I would apprehend losses for best of these companies as the abide to invest, until they adeptness that candied atom of demand. Who knows how bound that happens in Canada. We should accept added acumen in the abutting 12 to 18 months.
Harjes: This industry is so beginning that it’s adamantine to alike appear up with a appraisal for a lot of these companies. Just remember, as you’re attractive for advance account here, that you’re advance in a trend. Aback you attending to advance in some companies, maybe accomplish your own basket, maybe accede that ETF, but do apperceive that you’re not activity to acquisition any amount bargains here. But, it adeptness still be account demography a attending anyway.
As always, bodies on the affairs may accept interests in the stocks that they allocution about, and The Motley Fool may accept academic recommendations for or against, so don’t buy or advertise stocks based alone on what you hear. Today’s appearance is produced by Austin Morgan. For Todd Campbell, I’m Kristine Harjes. Thanks for alert and Fool on!
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