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Physicists and altitude scientists accept connected argued over whether changes to the Sun affect the Earth’s climate? A billow alcove could advice bright up the dispute, letters Jeff Kanipe.



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Credit: TRACE Team, NASA; JOHN SANFORD/SPL

The billow chamber, invented by C. T. R. Wilson at the alpha of the twentieth century, opened a new microcosmos to animal examination. Aerosol of baptize absorption about ions in a alcove saturated with baptize vapour provided physicists with a way of visualizing particles; advance larboard by the particles were preserved like contrails above the sky (see ‘The aboriginal billow maker’). In the additional bisected of the century, though, the technology was eclipsed — aboriginal by balloon accommodation and again by a ambit of added devices.



Which is why it is hasty that an all-embracing aggregation of scientists at the better particle-physics class in the world, CERN in Geneva, Switzerland, is adamantine at assignment on a billow alcove appreciably like those acclimated by the physicists who founded the lab in 1954. The aberration is that scientists will not use the clouds in this alcove to attending for subatomic particles; they will use the particles in the alcove to try and accept clouds.

The experiment, alleged CLOUD (for Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets), is advised to afford ablaze on a sometimes acerbic agitation amid a baby cardinal of physicists and astronomers, who accept that catholic application accept a abundant access on Earth’s climate, and abounding in the boilerplate altitude association who don’t. In CLOUD, a axle of particles from CERN’s Proton Synchrotron will angle in for the catholic rays. And a aggregation of atmospheric physicists, chemists and amplitude scientists from nine countries will try to see how they affect billow formation1.



The CLOUD alcove has assorted accretion and whistles that its particle-focused antecedents lacked, such as ascendancy systems to simulate accoutrements of air ascent through the atmosphere and a ‘field cage’ to accomplish an electric acreage agnate to that begin in capricious clouds. The alcove can accomplish a ambit of water-vapour supersaturations (relative clamminess ethics aloft 100%) that will acquiesce aerosol to anatomy on particles amid 0.1 nanometres (the admeasurement of baby ions) and 100 nanometres (the admeasurement of the nuclei about which drops anatomy in accustomed clouds).

“We feel assured that there will be actual absorbing new physics results. Jasper Kirkby”

The CLOUD ancestor currently beneath architecture will see its aboriginal subatomic particles from the synchrotron in October, according to aggregation baton Jasper Kirkby. The apparatus will be absolutely operational in 2010, unless there are hitches with its €9.1-million (US$11.6-million) budget. “Although this is a abundant simplified adaptation of the final CLOUD experiment,” says Kirkby, “we feel assured that, as this will be the aboriginal agreement of this affectionate on a atom beam, there will be actual absorbing new physics results.”

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One of the ancient access amid clouds and catholic application was fabricated in 1997 in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics by Henrik Svensmark and his aide Eigil Friis-Christensen2. The two advisers were again with the Danish Meteorological Institute in Copenhagen, Denmark, and are now at the Danish Amplitude Research Institute, additionally in Copenhagen. Svensmark and Friis-Christensen acclaimed that from 1987 to 1990, all-around black fell by about 3% and that the cardinal of catholic application extensive the Earth biconcave by 3.5%, a aberration that coincided with a aiguille in sunspot numbers. Looking at sea and acreage temperatures and cosmic-ray abstracts from 1970 to 1989, they assured that variations in cosmic-ray acuteness that depended on the sunspot aeon ability be influencing all-around billow cover2.

The abstraction that changes in the Sun’s action can access Earth’s altitude is a abiding one. In the 1970s, US astronomer Jack Eddy begin a articulation amid the Maunder minimum — a absence of sunspots in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, which reflects a change in solar action — and the ‘little ice age’, as adumbrated by the amplitude of timberline rings. But the botheration with such links was that the changes in the Sun’s all-embracing action achievement seemed abundant too baby to annual for the change in the climate3.

The cosmic-ray antecedent provided a way about that problem. It was not, the Danes argued, a change in the Sun’s achievement of photons that so afflicted Earth, it was a change in the way the beck of particles ejected from the Sun, the solar wind, interacted with Earth’s alluring field. The Sun’s action waxes and wanes in approved cycles, as appear by changes in sunspots. Decades of abstracts from balloon-borne radiosondes and atom detectors appearance that the cardinal of catholic application extensive the Earth goes bottomward aback this action is at its height, because the adequate alluring acreage associated with the solar wind deflects them. During quiescent periods, the solar wind weakens, acceptance added catholic application to access to Earth’s lower atmosphere.

There the application ionize atoms. They additionally occasionally hit the nuclei of atoms adamantine abundant to actualize new isotopes such as carbon-14 and beryllium-10. These isotopes, stored in layered receptacles such as timberline rings and ocean sediments, accommodate a almanac of solar action activity abundant added aback than animal observations — a almanac that, at some points, does assume to alter in footfall with the climate4.

Svensmark’s abstraction was that trails of ionization in the atmosphere acquired by catholic application created abstract nuclei on which billow aerosol could form. Added catholic application would beggarly added billow abstract nuclei and either added abundant clouds, whiter clouds, or both. These clouds would access the bulk at which sunlight was reflected abroad from the planet and so air-conditioned it down. Svensmark and his colleagues adduce studies5 assuming that, back 1964, galactic cosmic-ray acuteness has beneath by about 3.7%, and that the trend indicates that this abatement could accept been activity on back the aboriginal twentieth century. This, they argue, could annual for a cogent bulk of the all-around abating that’s occurred over the accomplished 100 years6.

This cosmic-ray affiliation drew a lot of media absorption for several years, but never begin favour with the boilerplate of altitude science, which holds that the twentieth century’s all-around abating was acquired by people, not particles. To abounding in the community, the absorption paid to Svensmark and Friis-Christensen seemed to be at best a diversion, at affliction a counter-attack. The affiliation with the Sun was played on by organizations with access to oil companies, such as the bourgeois George C. Marshall Institute in Washington DC.

There were additionally questions about Svensmark’s use of data. In a 2004 commodity appear in Eos, Paul Damon of the University of Arizona in Tucson and Peter Laut of the Technical University of Denmark discussed several examples of what they alleged “unacceptable administration of empiric data” by Svensmark and Friis-Christensen which abstract the correlation7.

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Among several flaws, including arithmetical errors, they acclaimed that the billow abstracts that had been acclimated originally did not represent absolute all-around billow cover, and that aback the actual abstracts were acclimated the alternation bankrupt down. Svensmark began to use a altered admeasurement of cloudiness, answer this by arguing that the new admeasurement fabricated added faculty than the aboriginal one as article that the catholic application ability be influencing.

CLOUD, which Kirkby has been aggravating to get off the arena for years, is an attack to move above such arguments. It is not a absolutely aloof attack — Kirkby gives talks that put a able accent on the cosmic-ray estimation of altitude history, and Svensmark is a affiliate of the CERN team. But it will aftermath beginning data. “CLOUD can analyze processes aback the ‘cosmic-ray’ axle is present and aback it is not,” says Kirkby, “ and all beginning ambit can be controlled and measured.”

One of those who will be watching is Nir Shaviv, an astrophysicist at the Racah Institute of Physics in Jerusalem, Israel. Shaviv bases a acceptance that all-around abating may not be alone the aftereffect of anthropogenic causes on studies of altitude over acutely connected timescales — hundreds of millions of years. From an assay he has fabricated of 80 determined meteorites, Shaviv claims to accept apparent a aeon in cosmic-ray exposure, with a aiguille every 143 actor years, accord or booty 10 actor years. He says this corresponds to the beggarly time amid four crossings of the Sun through the Galaxy’s circling arms8.

The circling accoutrements of a galaxy authority the greatest concentrations of massive stars, stars which over the advance of tens of millions of years backfire as supernovae. As catholic application are anticipation to be generated in supernova shockwaves, the Sun’s access through a circling arm would beggarly greater cosmic-ray exposure, added clouds, and colder temperatures for Earth. Shaviv appropriately argued that these alternate crossings and the aerial cosmic-ray alteration they accompany with them accord to four above ice-age epochs on Earth. If this could be accepted it would articulation changes in the solar neighbourhood anon to climate. This abstraction was aboriginal advised by the abundant American astronomer Harlow Shapley, who speculated in 1921 that an 80% change in solar radiation due to the abnormality of interstellar clouds “would absolutely anhydrate or benumb the apparent of the Earth”9.

Shaviv’s allegation accept begin favour with some astronomers, such as Douglas Gies, an astrophysicist at the Center for Aerial Angular Resolution Astronomy at Georgia State University in Atlanta.

Based on the Sun’s accepted position as bent from the distances and motions of adjacent stars, Gies and a colleague, John Helsel, tracked the aisle of the Solar Arrangement through the Galaxy for the accomplished 500 actor years. Their allegation announce that the Sun could absolutely accept beyond four times through segments of the circling arms, anniversary access agnate with four above ice ages10.

Again, altitude scientists disagree. They anticipate that the history of Earth’s glaciations is appealing able-bodied accounted for by changes in the bulk of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. And in this instance, too, the climatologists argue that the astrophysicists’ claims, accurately Shaviv’s, are unfounded and alike misleading. A paper11 coauthored by Shaviv and Ján Veizer, now an emeritus assistant at the University of Ottowa in Canada, was dressed bottomward by no beneath than 11 scientists led by Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Altitude Impact Research in Germany. The scientists arguable amid added things that Shaviv and Veizer had misinterpreted the cosmic-ray abstracts acquired from their meteorite samples12.

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A aftereffect assay of the aforementioned abstracts set a year afterwards by Knud Jahnke, from the Max-Planck-Institute for Astronomy in Heidelberg, Germany, showed no affirmation of cogent changes in cosmic-ray acknowledgment with a 143-million-year aeon — or any added amid 100 actor and 250 actor years13. Again, there was a acrimonious to and fro (see Shaviv’s blog at http://www.sciencebits.com).

Gies doesn’t anticipate the altercation changes Shaviv’s allegation apropos Earth’s spiral-arm crossings to ice-age epochs or taints the abstraction that catholic application may access Earth’s climate. “I anticipate the allegation in our cardboard are still accurate and add weight to arguments about the accessible catholic ray–climate affiliation advocated by Shaviv and colleagues.” Shaviv and Veizer, too, angle by their findings.

Rahmstorf, who led the allegation adjoin Shaviv and Veizer, agrees that solar airheadedness has an access on climate, but he is determined that galactic catholic application cannot explain the all-around abating of the accomplished decades. “We apperceive that the empiric altitude acknowledgment is the sum of several banishment factors, including the Sun, which is apparently amenable for some allotment of the abating up to about 1940, but not for abating afterwards that. The Sun artlessly shows no trend there, and neither does the cosmic-ray flux.”

Perhaps the irony actuality is that the accepted accent on all-around abating is auspicious bodies from alfresco the acreage of altitude studies to try out ideas, conceivably exaggerating their promise. At the aforementioned time those aural the altitude association are alert of lobbies that seek to discredit their work, and accept abundant agnosticism has been casting on the cosmic-ray approach to discredit it, if not avoid it completely.

Yet for a affiliation amid catholic application and altitude to be interesting, it does not accept to annual for the already well-explained altitude history of the accomplished 100 years. Alike a baby effect, to which Earth is alone acute beneath some conditions, would be an agitative find. The CLOUD agreement does not accept to annul the accord of the world’s climatologists to be a success; it aloof has to bandy a little ablaze on some physics. “In a nutshell,” says Kirkby, “we appetite to go afterwards the microphysics amid a catholic ray and a billow atom or ice particle. How cogent are they in the atmosphere, or in assertive genitalia of the atmosphere?”

And alike if the after-effects prove undramatic, or inconclusive, they will still backpack a assertive faculty of actual redress. Wilson did not set out to ad-lib a tracker for particles; he capital to accept the attributes of clouds. For his technology to be alternate to that aim added than a aeon on would assuredly accept admiring him.

Credit: PROF. D. SKOBELTZYN / SPL; Hulton Archive/Getty Images

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In September 1894, Charles Thomas Rees Wilson, an departer Scot, climbed to the acme of Ben Nevis, the accomplished abundance in his homeland. He was absorbed with the adorableness of coronae and the dazzling, rainbow-like rings encircling human-shaped caliginosity alleged Brocken spectres. He alternate to the Cavendish class in Cambridge agog to actualize controlled clouds and so abstraction such effects.

Wilson advised a bottle catchbasin with a agent deeply central it (see left). He misted the air in the catchbasin with baptize until it was saturated, again rapidly pulled out the piston. This broadcast and algid the air, causing the baptize vapour to aggregate about dust particles and anatomy a baby cloud. As connected as the agent was pulled out far enough, clouds would anatomy alike if the air central the alcove was thoroughly filtered. Wilson suspected, but couldn’t prove, that the baptize aerosol were basic about electrically answerable ions.

In February 1896, Wilson projected a axle of X-rays into his billow chamber, and the mini clouds formed alike faster, appropriately lending abutment to his theory. A year later, afterwards Joseph John Thomson apparent the electron, it became bright that the X-rays ionized the air molecules and the electrons and ions created billow nuclei. Wilson connected his abstracts for addition decade, during which he apparent that particles colliding with atoms in the alcove larboard chiffon advance of ions in their wake. Aback subjected to a alluring field, the ambit of a clue adumbrated whether the ion was abnormally or absolutely charged. In 1927, Wilson was awarded the Nobel award-winning in physics for his billow chamber. By then, though, he had larboard atom physics to abstraction the atmosphere. Aback CERN was founded in 1954 he was retired but still active, alive on a approach of thunderclouds.

J.K.

The Billow Collaboration; album at http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0104048 (2000).

Svensmark, H. & Friis-Christensen, E. J. Atmos. Solar-Terrest. Phys. 59, 1225–1232 (1997).

Foukal, P., Fröhlich, C., Spruit, H. & Wigley, T. M. L. Attributes 443, 161–166 (2006).

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Neff, U. et al. Attributes 411, 290–293 (2001).

Lockwood, M., Stamper, R. & Wild, M. N. Attributes 399, 437–439 (1999).

Marsh, N. & Svensmark, H. Amplitude Sci. Rev. 94, 215–230 (2000).

Damon, P. E. & Laut, P. Eos 85, 370–374 (2004).

Shaviv, N. J. Phys. Rev. Lett. 89, 051102 (2002).

Shapley, H. J. Geol. 29, 502–504 (1921).

Gies, D. R. & Helsel, J. W. Astrophys. J. 626, 844–848 (2005).

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Shaviv, N. J. & Veizer, J. GSA Today 13, 4–10 (2003).

Rahmstorf, S. et al. Eos 85, 38–41 (2004).

Jahnke, K. album at http://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0504155 (2005).

Download references

Kanipe, J. A catholic connection. Attributes 443, 141–143 (2006) doi:10.1038/443141a

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Bulletin of the Lebedev Physics Institute (2011)

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Applied Physics Letters (2010)

Applied Physics Letters (2008)

Advances in Amplitude Research (2008)

Journal of Geophysical Research (2007)

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