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After a assertive win Wednesday night over Rutgers, the 18th-ranked Northwestern Wildcats (23-3, 13-2 B1G) are locks to accomplish their aboriginal NCAA Affray back 2015. A postseason anchorage was a foregone cessation a few weeks ago afterwards the ‘Cats completed its best arduous allocation of the schedule, and, now, benumbed a six bold acceptable streak, NU is calmly aggressive the rankings of bracketologists.
The ‘Cats are the no. 10 aggregation according to RPI, with alley amateur adjoin Wisconsin and Ohio State afore a home afterpiece with Illinois larboard on the docket. Joe McKeown’s band has eight wins over top-50 RPI teams this division (Duke, Marquette, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan [twice!], and Rutgers), while their three losses accept been abandoned to top 20-ranked RPI programs in DePaul, Iowa, and Maryland.
Just how aerial can Northwestern climb? What absolutely do those bracketologists do every anniversary back they put their brackets together? For answers to those questions and abundant more, we talked to Russell Steinberg of Aerial Post Hoops, who was added authentic on his final bracket than ESPN’s Charlie Creme aftermost division and is aerial on the ‘Cats appropriate now, currently pegging them as the third berry in the Midwest.
INU: How difficult is it to put calm account bracketology for a action in which so few others do it? What does a accustomed anniversary of architecture a bracket attending like for you?
RS: It absolutely makes it easier alive there aren’t a lot of women’s basketball bracketologists out there. It agency I can’t analysis my assignment adjoin too abounding others, which ability amplitude my way of thinking. I don’t appetite my decisions to be afflicted by what addition abroad thinks. I’ve spent time with the board and I apperceive what they attending for. That should be enough. Do I still acquisition myself blockage in on Charlie Creme every already in a while? Yeah, I’m human. But I’ve gotten bigger at afraid with my aesthetics — for bigger or for worse.
Building the bracket itself is absolutely the accessible part. There are a lot of catchy rules to breach acquainted of, but that allotment doesn’t booty too long. Baronial the teams is by far the toughest allotment and it involves some assignment every day. I accept my berry account that includes every aggregation in my field, including autobids, additional every balloon aggregation and every aggregation that I anticipate could acquisition its way assimilate the balloon with a nice run.
Every morning, I analysis the array of the amateur the night afore and move teams up or bottomward accordingly. That involves blockage a aggregation vs. whoever is anon aloft or below. It takes a while and is difficult because back you get bottomward to, for example, blockage the additional 9 berry vs. the third 9 seed, the margins are generally paper-thin. I’ve begin that there’s not as abundant movement circadian as I would accept originally anticipation and that one abundant win may not accomplish as abundant of a aberration as you’d think.
INU: Back a accumulation of teams are abutting and you are aggravating to acclimation them, what is the primary “tiebreaker” that you attending at to analyze things?
RS: This is boxy because you try to anticipate like the board does, but every board affiliate is different. So there’s no one tiebreaker. It helps if teams accept played head-to-head or accept accepted opponents. If not, it generally agency I charge to booty a afterpiece attending at the numbers on the aggregation sheet.
If both teams are 5-2 vs. RPI top 50 teams, again maybe we charge to see who those teams are. Which ones came on the road? Were those teams advantageous back those amateur happened? How aggressive were those losses? How ascendant were those wins? Generally there’s commodity that comes up to breach the tie.
INU: Why do you anticipate Northwestern is actuality so underrated in the polls, at atomic compared to area you accept them in your bracket?
RS: I was absolutely afraid back that aboriginal berry acknowledge came out (referring to the Selection Committee’s aboriginal top-16 acknowledge at the alpha of February) and Northwestern was the aftermost 4 seed. I anticipate I had them as a adequate 3 berry at the time. Thankfully, back then, I anticipate the Wildcats accept justified their baronial and I achievement the board adjusts accordingly.
It’s adamantine to accusation them — I generally acquisition back accomplishing my accepted adjustments every day that there’s a aggregation I had actively underrated or overrated. It’s a connected acclimation and you accept to achievement that already the sample admeasurement is complete, anybody has abundant abstracts to accomplish the best decisions. At the time, Northwestern’s non-con may accept aching it a bit. This was afore Duke went on its run to jump into the acreage and there was annihilation abundant on that allotment of the resume.
In my opinion, the wins over Maryland and Indiana account that, but it’s additionally accessible to altercate the added way: the Maryland win could accept been a accident and the Indiana win came in OT and the Hoosiers had started to achromatize at the time.
INU: As they arch into the final amateur of the approved season, what is the best absorbing affair (or things) about Northwestern’s resumé as it stands appropriate now?
RS: Northwestern is 13-2 and a half-game out of aboriginal in a alliance that could accelerate eight teams to the NCAA Tournament. That abandoned should accomplish it aces of a adequate seed, provided things don’t abatement afar bottomward the stretch.
I anticipate an underrated aspect that may do Northwestern a ton of favors is that it does not accept a distinct accident to a aggregation not projected to host the aboriginal weekend. That’s harder than it sounds because the Wildcats accept had to comedy 17 of their 26 amateur (so far) adjoin RPI Top 100 teams. Bigger teams than them accept slipped up adjoin weaker competition. And it all goes to appearance that those signature wins — Maryland, Indiana, at Michigan — are no flukes.
INU: Looking ahead, what do you see as the ceiling/floor for Northwestern’s abeyant seed?
RS: Acceptable account and bad account here. The acceptable account is that the attic should be appealing high. The affliction realistic-case book seems to be a 2-1 accomplishment to the approved division with a accident to Ohio State, again a awe-inspiring first-round avenue in the Big Ten Tournament. That puts them at 25-5 with 8 RPI Top 50 wins. I don’t see how that puts them worse than a 5 berry at the complete affliction (and candidly they should still apparently be a 4 in that situation).
The cast ancillary to that is I’m not abiding if Northwestern can get aloft the 3 line. That’s area they’ll accept to argue with casual some of the best teams in the Pac-12, which will aces up wins over anniversary added in the aftermost weeks of the season. The Big Ten will accelerate added teams to the affray than the Pac-12, but the Pac-12 is bigger in the top half. UCLA and Stanford will apparently still accept the bend appear Selection Monday.
Now, abundantly enlightened, lets about-face to those account updates, starting with Steinberg.
Russell Steinberg of Aerial Post Hoops: 3 seed
The ‘Cats move up a atom in Steinberg’s bracket from 4 to 3 and would comedy the Metro Atlantic Conference’s Marist in a abeyant aboriginal annular matchup. Kentucky or Iowa State would anticipate the ‘Cats at Welsh-Ryan afore a affray in Greenville, North Carolina, adjoin 2-seeded Louisville.
The Big Ten additionally leads all conferences in spots in this bracket (see below), and Steinberg accurately singles out Maryland and its ten wins over top-50 RPI teams in the commodity accompanying the anew appear bracket.
Other Big Ten teams: Maryland (1), Iowa (3), Indiana (5), Rutgers (8), Purdue (8), Ohio State (10), Michigan (10)
ESPN’s Charlie Creme: 4 seed
Creme puts Northwestern the everyman out of any of the three brackets advised in this article. He has had the ‘Cats at a cardinal four berry on a appealing constant base back their access into the top 25, and his latest bracket is no exception. Creme has the ‘Cats hosting no. 13 berry Stony Brook, projected to win the automated bid in the American East, in Evanston. Assuming agriculture holds, the ‘Cats would again host no. 5 Florida State in Evanston afore a abeyant date adjoin Oregon in the Sweet Sixteen.
Other Big Ten teams int the field: Maryland (1), Iowa (4), Indiana (5), Ohio State (7), Michigan (10), Rutgers (10), Purdue (10),
RealTimeRPI.com: 3 seed
RPI additionally has the ‘Cats as a no. 3 berry demography on Marist in the aboriginal annular of the affray with the abeyant to comedy TCU and Louisville in the advancing rounds.
Much like the added 2 brackets, RealTimeRPI is additionally aerial on the Big Ten, with 8 teams potentially accepting the alarm on Selection Sunday.
Other Big Ten teams: Maryland (1), Iowa (3), Indiana (4), Ohio State (5), Purdue (8), Michigan (9), Rutgers (10)
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