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(Bloomberg Businessweek) — The three best buzzed-about candidates to become Joe Biden’s active acquaintance are all U.S. senators: Kamala Harris (California), Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota), and Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts). But oddsmakers put Warren at a disadvantage because Massachusetts—unlike California and Minnesota—has a Republican governor who would apparently ample her Senate bench with a adolescent Republican, if accustomed the opportunity. 



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The daydream book some Democrats anticipate is that a Biden-Warren admission will prevail in November and Democrats will win enough Senate seats to cull into a 50-50 tie with Republicans—only to accept Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker accredit a Republican to ample Warren’s bench and duke ascendancy of the Senate aback to Mitch McConnell and the GOP. “He knows,” a Democratic agent told CNN of Biden, “a Senate majority is too important to risk.” 



In reality, however, there’s about no accident at all to Biden allotment Warren as his carnality president—at atomic not to a academic Democratic Senate majority in 2021.

That’s because Massachusetts law offers Democrats assorted paths to deny Baker the adventitious to name a backup and agitate the analytical aboriginal months of a Biden administration, back Senate ascendancy would amount most. Here are three agency they could do it:



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1) In 2004, back Senator John Kerry was active for president, Massachusetts Democrats afflicted the law to anticipate then-Governor Mitt Romney from allotment a Republican to serve out Kerry’s appellation if he won. “The law was afflicted to abstain accepting to accomplish a change every time we’re in a bind—also accepted as ‘any time we accept a Republican governor,’” says Jim Roosevelt, arch acknowledged admonition of the Massachusetts Democratic Party. Instead of the governor allotment a abiding replacement, the new law permits alone a acting placeholder and requires a appropriate acclamation aural 145 to 160 canicule of a abandonment announcement. (This backfired on Democrats in 2010, back Republican Scott Brown won an agitated achievement to ample the backward Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat.)

Massachusetts Democrats currently accept a ample abundant majority in the assembly to change the law already afresh to anticipate Baker from allotment a Republican to alter Warren alike temporarily—and Politico reports that a bill is currently actuality drafted to crave Baker to alter any abandonment agent with a affiliate of the aforementioned party. 

2) If Biden were to accept Warren as his active acquaintance about soon, and she were to announce her Senate abandonment afore June 23, Massachusetts law dictates that the appropriate acclamation to alter her would be captivated on the aforementioned day as the accepted election, Nov. 3. That’s a dream book for Democrats: It’s about absurd to brainstorm that back voters flood the acclamation to celerity Donald Trump (Biden beats him 67-33 in a contempo Emerson College poll of Massachusetts), they would, at the aforementioned time, accept to accelerate a Republican to the Senate.

3) The block in Advantage #2 is that it would require Warren to abdicate the Senate, acceptation she couldn’t acknowledgment if a Biden-Warren admission lost. “I alone cannot brainstorm a book in which she would abandon while she ran,” says Roosevelt. She wouldn’t necessarily accept to.

In 2016, back Warren was actuality advised as Hillary Clinton’s active mate, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid asked a top Democratic lawyer, Marc Elias, to abstraction the options for befitting Warren’s seat. In a advertisement Elias able for Reid (that was accustomed to me by a Democratic strategist), he acclaimed that, while the law requires a appropriate acclamation 145 to 160 canicule afterwards a abstraction is created, “filing a letter of abandonment creates a vacancy, alike if the abandonment is not able immediately.” That agency Democrats could finer behest the timing of the appropriate election.

Thus, alike if Warren were called afterwards June 23, she could ensure, through the timing of her abandonment announcement, that the appropriate acclamation is captivated afterwards Acclamation Day (so voters would apperceive if ascendancy of the Senate is on the line) and afore the new Senate is affidavit in. (Of course, in the accident of a 50-50 split, Democrats would still accept to win to advance Senate control.) Given that Massachusetts currently has a surplus of high-profile Democratic Senate candidates and Senate ascendancy could adhere in the balance, it’s adamantine to brainstorm Democrats accident a appropriate election.

The safest avenue for Warren alone would be to delay until the day afterwards the acclamation to abandon her seat. That’s what Barack Obama and Joe Biden did. If the Massachusetts assembly doesn’t change the law, a Baker-chosen placeholder could serve until aboriginal April. This advantage isn’t ideal for Democrats, who’d accident actuality bedridden for two months or so afterwards Biden’s inauguration. But neither would it be ideal for Baker, a Republican who needs the abutment of Democratic voters to get elected.

“We accept a governor who did not vote for and does not abutment this president,” says Gus Bickford, administrator of the accompaniment Democratic Party. “I’m not activity to put words in his mouth, but I anticipate his accomplishments authenticate he does not accept account for, and does not appetite to help, the Republican Senate majority.” (Baker  wouldn’t chaw back speaking to reporters aftermost week: “I haven’t spent two abnormal cerebration about that.”) Still, cyberbanking on a Republican governor apparently isn’t a accident Democrats would appetite to take. 

In the end, Biden would apparently behest any accommodation about timing, if he decided to accept Warren as his active mate. There are affluence of affidavit why he ability not accept her, alignment from a admiration for ancestral and generational antithesis to a confidence that allotment a abstinent gives him a bigger adventitious of assault Trump. But whatever his calculus, worries about accident Senate ascendancy should be appealing far bottomward the list.

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