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After about two months of shutdown, Continued Island has yet to accommodated the state’s seven guidelines bare for a wide-scale reopening, with hospital deaths and new hospitalizations too high.
While several upstate regions accept met these guidelines and are accessible to reopen, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo won’t adumbrate back Continued Island can alpha to animate businesses and added activities, which accept been bankrupt back March 22 because of the baleful pandemic.
“I’m not activity to guess, and all it would be is a guess, and I’m not activity to do that,” Cuomo said Thursday at a account conference in Syracuse.
Under the state’s ecology system, Nassau and Suffolk counties accept been accumulated into one region. For example, the accompaniment is application a three-day, rolling boilerplate of new hospitalizations beyond the Island as one of its metrics.
Of the seven goals bare for reopening, Continued Island still lacks three indicators that absorb accessible hospital beds, hospital deaths and new hospitalizations. In a fourth measure, Continued Island has yet to authorize a acceptable cardinal of acquaintance tracers to acknowledge to absolute infection ante locally but is “expected” to, according to accompaniment records.
Despite the continued wait, the abstraction of Continued Island alive as one arena — at atomic for the purposes of angry the coronavirus — is actuality greeted with approval by both bloom and government experts.
“There is no accomplished band amid the Nassau-Suffolk border,” says John Cameron, administrator of the Continued Island Bounded Planning Commission. Viewing Continued Island as a distinct arena “makes a lot of sense.”
With this bounded approach, says Jaymie Meliker, an epidemiologist who is a assistant at Stony Brook University’s Program in Public Health, “the bigger affair is how best to antithesis a acknowledgment to course while continuing to abate advance so as to not beat the hospitals.”
The seven metrics for Continued Island and added regions about the accompaniment are displayed by Cuomo’s “Regional Ecology Dashboard” website, with blooming checks for acquiescence and red X-marks for those who accept yet to accommodated the guidelines.
To accommodated one metric, Continued Island charge accept either a 14-day abatement in hospital deaths or beneath than bristles hospital deaths over three canicule on average. According to the state’s dashboard, Continued Island has had alone one day of abatement in hospital deaths.
According to accompaniment tallies, Long Island has also seen up to 39 absolute deaths a day in the three canicule catastrophe Wednesday, or up to eight times the bristles deaths a day on average needed to accommodated the metric’s added measure.
The added metric the Island is not abutting to meeting, according to the accompaniment dashboard, requires beneath than two new hospitalizations per 100,000 association anniversary day on boilerplate over three days. According to the accompaniment dashboard, Continued Island exceeded that metric by 44% as of Wednesday, announcement 2.88 new hospitalizations per day on boilerplate over three days.
One breadth Continued Island is abutting to affair — and was affair as of Tuesday — is the allotment of hospital beds available. It charge accept 30% available to accommodated that metric, and while it was hardly beneath that beginning Tuesday it had surpassed it by Wednesday, according to the state’s bounded dashboard.
After abounding weeks of amusing distancing, Continued Island has fabricated cogent advance in affair some of the state’s guidelines. On Cuomo’s bounded dashboard, Continued Island gets blooming approval marks for its crumbling hospitalizations, improvements in absolute ICU beds accessible and all-embracing testing for the virus.
But there is additionally the still accessible affair of acquaintance archetype for Continued Island. On Cuomo’s ecology dashboard, regions like Central New York and the Finger Lakes accept a bright blooming analysis mark, assuming they’ve met the state’s ambition of accepting 30 acquaintance tracers for every 100,000 association or based on the infection rate. However, Continued Island, like added added densely busy regions, is alone apparent with “Expected” on the dashboard, with no bright date for accomplishing that goal.
Although the bounded access ability assignment for reopening afterwards the pandemic, it won’t serve as a arrangement for the future, said Lawrence Levy, controlling administrator of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.
There would be too abundant pushback from alone association leaders and association would be absurd to appetite to accord up bounded control, Levy added. Besides, the accompaniment and federal agencies already appearance Continued Island as a distinct arena for things like bread-and-butter development and the accompaniment cloister system, he said.
“The affairs of the two counties actuality alloyed — or that it is on the calendar of any austere player, including the governor — is about as acceptable as seeing a COVID-19 vaccine by abutting week. It won’t happen,” he said.
With Matt Clark, Sandra Peddie and Michael Gormley
Thomas Maier is a longtime Newsday journalist, columnist of bristles books and works as an on-air anchorman with Account 12 Continued Island.
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