Charger Quarterbacks 1 1 Doubts About Charger Quarterbacks 1 You Should Clarify
Spread: Chargers -8.5Total: 47Jets vs. Chargers Betting Matchup
QBsJoe Flacco: Too bad Flacco had to go into his bye anniversary afterwards that Monday night achievement adjoin the Patriots, as I’m abiding he would’ve admired to abide the drive from his 262-yard, three-touchdown performance. It was aloof the added time all division area a Jets quarterback accomplished with added than 13.8 fantasy points. Unfortunately, the antagonism won’t be as acceptable this anniversary (not abounding apprehend the Patriots antagonism is absolutely a abundant one). The Chargers accept accustomed a aerial 5.61 percent touchdown-rate which has aggrandized their all-embracing numbers, but the 6.79 yards per attack they’ve accustomed is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. There accept been aloof three quarterbacks who’ve befuddled for added than 248 yards adjoin them, and those quarterbacks were Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees. It would advice Flacco’s attic if Joey Bosa had to absence addition game, as the Chargers canyon blitz is anemic afterwards him, but still, Flacco is annihilation added than a low-end QB2 who’s about playable in 2QB formats.
Justin Herbert: Anniversary 10 was the aboriginal time Herbert didn’t bandy for at atomic 264 yards… he still denticulate 20.5 fantasy points. We’ve talked about his base upside as a rusher and it came through again, as he begin his way in for his third hasty touchdown on the season. Over his aftermost six starts, he’s accounted for 19 absolute touchdowns (17 passing, 2 rushing). Afterwards abundant success on the ground, he should abide to column big numbers, and now he has a antagonism with the Jets afflicted secondary. They’ve accustomed 8.10 yards per attack on the year, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in football, which stems from them acceptance a league-high 72.4 percent completion-rate. Four of the aftermost bristles quarterbacks they’ve played accept befuddled for 307-plus yards, and the abandoned barring was Cam Newton, who was able to bandy for a season-high 274 yards while hasty for two touchdowns. They’ve accustomed at atomic two touchdowns (one way or another) to anniversary of the aftermost six amateur they’ve played, so aback you agency in Herbert’s yardage floor, there’s about no accident in this matchup. Herbert is a rock-solid QB1 that should be in lineups every week, and this antagonism abandoned enhances his upside.
RBsFrank Gore and Lamical Perine: For those who were acquisitive that Perine would eventually get to advertise his ability, it seems Adam Gase doesn’t appetite to accomplish that happen. Aback acid Le’Veon Bell, the blow calculation has been Gore 50, Perine 40. We’re seeing a lot added of Gore with early-down assignment (he’s outproducing Perine there) while Perine is accepting hardly added passing-down usage. Aback you see this array of timeshare in a backfield that averages aloof 23.0 touches per game, it’s a problem. The Chargers accept apparent aloof 25.8 active aback touches per game, which is one of the lower marks in the league, which again, is not acceptable for a timeshare. Gore has now gone 230 carries afterwards a distinct touchdown, which dates aback to Anniversary 3 of aftermost year. Add in his 3.57 yards per backpack he’s averaging, and it absolutely doesn’t bulk that the Chargers are acceptance 4.87 yards per carry. They’ve anchored up in the red zone, too, acceptance aloof bristles hasty touchdowns (seventh-fewest) on 178 carries. Assembly through the air adjoin them has been minimal, as they’ve accustomed aloof 4.59 yards per target, which is the third-lowest mark in the league. There was a address that came out on Wednesday area Adam Gase said Perine would “get added assignment affective forward” but additionally went on to say that Gore will still be involved. I accept we should apprehend Perine to advance the timeshare, but alike then, he’s ashore in the low-end RB3/high-end RB4 territory, as this duo has averaged aloof 22.5 touches per bold over the aftermost four games.
Kalen Ballage and Joshua Kelley: Over the aftermost two weeks, we’ve apparent Ballage accomplish his mark on this backfield, cutting up 137 yards and a touchdown on the ground, while chipping in seven catches for 49 yards through the air. Did I anticipate it was accessible that Ballage would be a top-12 active aback over a two-week amplitude in 2020? Nope, but he ranks as the No. 12 over the aftermost two weeks. Don’t apprehend Kelley to accomplish a improvement any time anon either, as he’s averaging 0.66 beneath yards per backpack than he’s been accepted to according to NFL’s NextGenStats, which is the second-worst cardinal in the league. Ballage gets his “revenge game” adjoin the Jets this week, a run aegis that’s underrated by many. They’ve accustomed aloof one 100-yard active aback this season, and it was Melvin Gordon aback he saw 23 carries on Thursday night football. In the aforementioned arrangement aftermost year, they accustomed aloof one 100-yard rusher. To be fair, they’ve absent absolutely a few players, but it’s not an accessible matchup. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that factors in akin of competition, the Jets are the 10th-best run aegis in football. It’s no accompaniment that they’ve accustomed the 12th-fewest PPR credibility per abounding befalling to active backs. Active backs accept averaged a rock-solid 29.2 touches per bold adjoin them, so we should be assured addition 15-plus blow bold out of Ballage. Alike if ability isn’t great, he’s in the low-end RB2 chat this week. Kelley saw a season-low seven touches aftermost week, affective him able-bodied into the RB4 area as addition who’s accomplished with added than 3.1 yards per backpack aloof alert through nine games.
WRsJamison Crowder: He wound-up arena in Anniversary 9 but it was the aboriginal time all division he played a bold and saw beneath than 10 targets. Is it a aftereffect of Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims actuality healthy? It’s possible, so we can’t automatically accept he’s the ambition hog he was to alpha the year, admitting it additionally could’ve had article to do with him actuality ambiguous throughout the anniversary and not necessarily actuality congenital into the gameplan. The Chargers traded abroad their starting aperture cornerback Desmond King at the barter deadline, which has led to aftermost year’s undrafted chargeless abettor Tevaughn Campbell accoutrement the slot. That… hasn’t gone well. He’s accustomed 9-of-11 casual for 92 yards and two touchdowns in his coverage. Jakeem Grant absolved into appliance aftermost week, accretion 4/43/1 on aloof bristles targets. If the Jets accept the matchups and area to exploit, Crowder should get his double-digit targets afresh this week. He should be in lineups as a high-end WR3.
Breshad Perriman: He hasn’t been advantageous throughout the year, but he looked acceptable in Anniversary 9 adjoin the Patriots, cutting up bristles catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns. His targets by anniversary accept been 5, 2, 8, 2, 7. That’s not abundant for reliability. The Chargers aegis has hardly been annihilation abutting to what we accepted (injuries accept decimated them), but of the assembly they acquiesce to skill-position players, advanced receivers are accounting for aloof 45.2 percent of it, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. On top of that, Perriman is a perimeter-only receiver, which agency he’ll see a lot of Casey Hayward and Michael Davis, who’ve been abundant bigger than the defenders over the boilerplate of the field. They’ve accumulated to acquiesce 56-of-100 casual for 798 yards and bristles touchdowns. That amounts to aloof 7.98 yards per ambition and a touchdown every 20.0 targets. The Chargers as a aggregation accept accustomed aloof 23 canyon plays of 20-plus yards this year, which ranks as the fifth-fewest in the league. Aback you amalgamate his ambiguous ambition allotment with the matchup, he’s annihilation added than a boom-or-bust WR5.
Denzel Mims: He’s abandoned played three NFL games, but he’s apparent some promise, accretion at atomic 42 yards in anniversary game. Unfortunately, it seems like his targets may be adamantine to adumbrate (like all Jets receivers), as he’s apparent 7, 3, 8 in his three games. Agnate to Perriman, Mims has played about abandoned on the perimeter, which agency he’ll additionally go adjoin Casey Hayward and Michael Davis, one of the bigger ambit duos in the alliance this year. As declared in the Perriman notes, they’ve accumulated to acquiesce 56-of-100 casual for 798 yards and bristles touchdowns, which amounts to aloof 7.98 yards per ambition and a touchdown every 20.0 targets. Flacco ability be bigger for their projections because he can bandy the abysmal brawl (Mims has the accomplished aDOT on the aggregation at 13.7 yards), but the Chargers haven’t been afflicted to the big comedy this year. Mims is addition to adviser but he’s annihilation added than a dart-throw in fantasy lineups appropriate now with apprenticed upside.
Keenan Allen: We’re now eight amateur into Herbert’s career (half of a season), and over that time, Allen is the No. 5 advanced receiver in fantasy football, which includes a bold area he had to leave afore halftime. He saw “just” seven targets in Anniversary 10, which was his season-low in the abounding amateur he’s played. He’s now activity out to comedy a Jets aggregation that’s accustomed six advanced receivers to accomplishment with 22-plus PPR credibility and as the WR11 or better. The toughest antagonism adjoin them is in the slot, so it’s acceptable annual that Allen has played aloof 46.5 percent of his snaps there. It’s not like he can’t exhausted Brian Poole, but it’s easier to exhausted Pierre Desir (who was cut this week) and Blessuan Austin on the perimeter. Allen should see Austin more, who’s been the bigger of the two, admitting he’s still accustomed a 99.8 QB Rating in his coverage. Look, aback you accept a receiver who’s averaging 10.3 targets per bold activity adjoin a accessory that’s accustomed a 7.17 percent catch-rate and 9.34 yards per target, you’re starting him as a WR1, period.
Mike Williams: We talked about it aftermost week; Williams had a absolute boxy antagonism on the ambit aftermost week, as he was apprenticed to see a lot of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones in coverage. Seeing him accomplishment with aloof two catches for 38 yards wasn’t too surprising. Don’t anguish about it because he’s acceptable activity to get aback on clue this week. Williams plays best of his snaps at RWR, which agency he’s activity to see the best of Pierre Desir in coverage. He’s accustomed 35-of-47 casual for 491 yards and bristles touchdowns in his coverage. That’s 2.43 PPR credibility per target, which ranks as the 10th-most in football amid cornerbacks who’ve played at atomic 100 advantage snaps. The bristles touchdowns he’s accustomed in his advantage is the best in the NFL, which is absolute for addition like Williams, who’s a big red area target. He’s apparent at atomic bristles targets in four of the aftermost bristles games, so he deserves to be in the risk/reward WR3/4 chat this week. *Update* Desir was absolutely cut mid-week and will not be accoutrement Williams. It will acceptable be Corey Ballentine or amateur Bryce Hall that takes his atom in the secondary. Ballentine struggled with the Giants and we haven’t apparent abundant of Hall. This doesn’t change abundant for Williams’ outlook.
TEsChris Herndon and Ryan Griffin: The two accumulated for aloof 16 routes in their aftermost bold (Herndon 10, Griffin 6). Over the aftermost three amateur with the advanced receivers accepting healthy, the two of these apprenticed ends accept accumulated for aloof six targets. You’re not arena a Jets apprenticed end.
Hunter Henry: It was added of the aforementioned with Henry aftermost week, as he bent four passes and accomplished boilerplate 30-33 yards for the third beeline game, but he scored, authoritative aggregate arise okay. Again, he hasn’t topped 39 yards aback way aback in Anniversary 3. It’s article that makes no faculty to me, as he’s averaging 6.6 targets per bold from a quarterback who’s been fantastic, yet he’s disturbing to produce. The Jets accept accustomed a 75.0 percent completion-rate (6th), 8.38 yards per ambition (5th), and a touchdown every 9.3 targets (third-most often) to apprenticed ends, which all adds up to 2.23 PPR credibility per target, the third-highest mark in the NFL. It’s advised the eighth-best agenda adapted antagonism for apprenticed ends, as they’ve averaged 13.6 percent added than their seasonal-average aback arena the Jets. There accept been aloof three apprenticed ends who’ve apparent four-plus targets adjoin them, and their finishes were TE1, TE5, and TE14. Admitting Henry disturbing to aftermath abundant yardage, he charcoal in the TE1 chat in a plus-matchup.
Spread: Dolphins -3.5Total: 45Dolphins vs. Broncos Betting Matchup
QBsTua Tagovailoa: The Dolphins aren’t axis into a pass-heavy aggregation beneath Tagovailoa, that abundant is for sure. He’s befuddled aloof 75 canyon attempts in his three starts, which bulk to aloof 25.0 attempts per game, and would be aloof 400 of them over a abounding 16-game season. Because of that, it’s activity to be boxy to await on him for fantasy purposes. On top of that, his accepting options are acutely apprenticed and because of that, he’s befuddled into apprenticed advantage a league-leading 23.4 percent of the time, which is absolutely college than Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s 20.3 percent mark. That doesn’t leave abundant allowance for error. The Broncos haven’t been a aegis who’s accustomed abundant ability through the air, acceptance aloof 6.86 yards per attack (7th-lowest mark in the NFL). Because of that, they’ve accustomed aloof 243.2 casual yards per game, which is one of the everyman totals in the league. Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, and Justin Herbert were all able to bandy for three touchdowns adjoin them, but anniversary of them threw the brawl at atomic 38 times, a cardinal Tagovailoa can abandoned dream of. He has apparent some advancement with 35 hasty yards adjoin the Cardinals, but alfresco of that game, he’s rushed for -1 yard. This doesn’t accord us a absolute aerial floor, so aback you booty that and amalgamate it with the low bold total, it’s a bit worrisome. Tagovailoa should be advised a mid-to-low-end QB2 with a apprenticed beam due to apprenticed attempts.
Drew Lock: His boilerplate abyss of ambition this division is a league-leading 9.7 yards bottomward the field, which may charge to get bass bottomward a bit because he took a assault aftermost anniversary adjoin a Raiders aggregation that hasn’t pressured the quarterback abundant at all this season. He has a league-low 25.2 QB Rating while beneath burden this season. In case you didn’t know, if you bandy the brawl into the arena every play, you get a 39.6 QB Rating. Lock isn’t abundant from a apple-pie pocket, as his 86.2 QB Rating highlights, but he’s a lot bigger in that scenario. The Dolphins accept brought the seventh-most burden to opposing quarterbacks this year and accept sacked them on 6.29 percent of dropbacks. The Dolphins aegis has been arena acutely able-bodied as of backward and accept now captivated bristles quarterbacks to 6.5 or beneath yards per attempt, including Justin Herbert in Anniversary 10 aback he threw for aloof 187 yards on 32 canyon attempts. The 13 casual touchdowns they’ve accustomed is the sixth-fewest in the league, and accumulate in apperception they’ve played Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Herbert. Quarterbacks accept averaged 5.8 percent beneath fantasy credibility than they’ve averaged adjoin non-Dolphins opponents. Lock is not addition who should be trusted as a banderole and isn’t alike a abundant 2QB advantage this week.
RBsSalvon Ahmed and Matt Breida: Afterwards seeing aloof seven carries in his division admission with the Dolphins, Ahmed was advance into a beyond role in Anniversary 10 and he delivered, cutting up 85 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries adjoin the Chargers. The aggregate of DeAndre Washington and Patrick Laird accustomed aloof four carries amid the two of them, so Ahmed basically got the Myles Gaskin role. The downside was that he accomplished with aloof one target. It wasn’t abridgement of snaps, as he led the active backs in routes. We accept to accept he’s done abundant to authority assimilate that role, alike with Breida accepted back. Alike aback healthy, Breida hasn’t totaled added than 10 touches in a bold with the Dolphins. The Broncos had been one of the best run defenses in football, but they had a discharge aftermost week, acceptance a antic 193 yards and four touchdowns on 37 carries to the Raiders active backs aftermost week. I accept we’ve apparent them blooper in Anniversary 8 as able-bodied aback the Chargers active backs accumulated for 188 yards on 34 carries, admitting they didn’t score. Through the aboriginal six weeks, the Broncos hadn’t accustomed added than 116 hasty yards in a game. What changed? Mike Purcell, their best adenoids tackle, went bottomward with a division catastrophe abrasion and has absent the aftermost three weeks. The accident of him and Jurrell Casey accept accurate to be too abundant for them to handle. Because of that, Ahmed should be played as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3. I’d say higher, but we absolutely don’t apperceive how the touches will be disconnected with Breida back. As for Breida, he’s annihilation added than an RB4-type advantage who’s affirmed annihilation added than bristles touches or so.
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay: We’ve gone aback and alternating every anniversary on these two, aggravating to bulk out who has the best value, but in the end, what if it’s neither of them? Here’s a blueprint documenting their finishes by anniversary in PPR formats:
Just already accept one of them accomplished as a top-20 active aback aback Anniversary 4. The Broncos aegis is falling abaft aboriginal and often, banishment them into a abrogating gamescript and casual added than they’d like. The Dolphins haven’t accustomed a hasty touchdown to a active aback aback way aback in Anniversary 4 and haven’t accustomed added than 128 yards on the arena to any aggregation of active backs. It helps that they haven’t faced abounding carries (21.8 per game), which is not abundant for this timeshare. They accept accustomed a aerial 6.55 yards per ambition to active backs, which ranks as the sixth-highest mark in the league, and allotment of the acumen they’ve accustomed the 13th-most fantasy credibility through the air to active backs. The Broncos haven’t seemed to booty advantage of matchups like this, like aback they played the Falcons a few weeks ago, a aggregation that had been ashamed through the air by active backs, but Gordon and Lindsay accumulated for aloof one catch. Because Gordon played bifold the snaps that Lindsay did, Gordon would be the adopted option, admitting he’s annihilation added than an RB3. Meanwhile, Lindsay finds himself in RB4 territory.
WRsDeVante Parker: He’s not breeding any separation, as his 1.8 yards of breach ranks as the added affliction in the NFL, so he charge await on his quarterbacks to ambition him in apprenticed coverage. Fortunately, Tagovailoa has been accommodating to do so. Parker had a barbarous antagonism aftermost anniversary with Casey Hayward and accomplished with aloof two catches for 31 yards, admitting he had a touchdown that was chaotic that would’ve afflicted the hearts of abounding fantasy managers. He’s now apparent seven targets in anniversary of his aftermost two amateur with Tagovailoa, which should abide with the apprenticed pass-catching options they accept accessible appropriate now. The Broncos accept A.J. Bouye and Michael Ojemudia on the perimeter, which is area Parker spends best of his time. Those two accept accumulated to acquiesce 43-of-67 casual for 585 yards and four touchdowns in their coverage. There accept been eight advanced receivers who’ve been able to absolute 81-plus yards adjoin the Broncos, admitting none of them accept topped 104 yards, and that’s admitting 12 advanced receivers seeing seven or added targets. The abridgement of casual with Tagovailoa beneath centermost is attached to both Parker’s attic and his ceiling, admitting we’d booty seven targets per anniversary from a WR3, which is area he is in the rankings, admitting in the mid-to-lower portion.
Jerry Jeudy: Aback affective to the perimeter, Jeudy has been abundant added complex in the breach and has 32 targets over the aftermost three games. It absolutely helps that the Broncos aegis hasn’t been able to stop anyone, which has led to abrogating gamescripts. Still, Jeudy managers will booty it, as he’s accomplished with 10.8-plus credibility in three beeline games. Teams haven’t had abundant success while accomplishing it, but advanced receivers accept apparent a rather-high 61.9 percent ambition allotment adjoin the Dolphins, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. The ambit duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones is one of the best in football. Aloof aftermost anniversary we saw them absolute Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to aloof bristles catches for 77 yards combined, admitting Allen did acquisition the end zone. On the season, the Dolphins accept accustomed aloof 1.65 PPR credibility per target, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league, so aggregate has been important. Jeudy’s aggregate is abundant to accumulate him in that WR3 conversation, but this bold aloof feels like a low-scoring affair.
Tim Patrick: He was ejected from aftermost week’s bold for fighting, but at atomic he was able to aftermath four catches for 61 yards above-mentioned to that happening. The downside is that he’s collapsed abaft Jeudy on the pecking order. This week’s antagonism is not a abundant one for advanced receivers, decidedly those who comedy about all their snaps on the perimeter. Advanced receivers are communicable aloof 60.1 percent of the passes befuddled their way adjoin the Dolphins, which is the second-lowest mark in the NFL. Receivers accept been targeted a solid 22.6 times per bold (5th-most in NFL), which helps accomplish up for some of the abridgement of efficiency. Patrick’s primary antagonism is activity to be with Xavien Howard, a cornerback who’s ascendant at times. If there’s one accurate blazon of receiver he’s struggled with, it’s those who are aristocratic avenue runners, which is not article you’d say about Patrick. All in all, there accept been aloof 10 advanced receivers who’ve accomplished as top-36 options adjoin the Dolphins admitting all that volume. Patrick is aloof a low-end WR4/high-end WR5 in this matchup.
KJ Hamler: He’s the team’s aperture receiver, which was the role that Jeudy was arena beforehand in the year. That’s activity to absolute his believability (like it did Jeudy), but if we accumulate seeing 10 targets per bold like he has the aftermost two weeks, he’s activity to be in play. He ability accept the best antagonism on the acreage this week, because while Jeudy and Patrick accord with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, Hamler gets Nik Needham. He’s a aforetime undrafted chargeless abettor who’s accustomed 68-of-109 casual for 938 yards and nine touchdowns in his advantage over the aftermost two years, which is acceptable abundant for a 109.8 QB Rating. His official 40-time was 4.72 seconds, which doesn’t absolutely augur able-bodied for his affairs of befitting up with the accelerated Hamler, who was accepted to run a aerial 4.2 or low 4.3-second 40-yard birr (hamstring abrasion kept him from commutual at the Combine). If you’re attractive for a abeyant home run threat, Hamler could be it as a boom-or-bust WR4-type option.
TEsMike Gesicki: In the three amateur with Tagovailoa beneath center, Gesicki has apparent aloof 11 targets, bent six passes, and totaled 90 scoreless yards. That’s not activity to get anyone excited, abnormally aback we apperceive that ambition allotment isn’t the problem. Gesicki absolutely has a appropriate 17 percent ambition allotment over the aftermost two weeks, but the abridgement of canyon attempts drags anybody down. The Broncos accept accustomed the 12th-fewest credibility per bold to apprenticed ends, but they accept accustomed the 10th-most receptions, which highlights a abridgement of touchdowns. Aback you see they’ve accustomed aloof two of them on 61 targets, you apperceive why they’re a antagonism that’s “in the red.” Still, it’s not abundant to apprehend that apprenticed ends boilerplate 13.2 percent beneath fantasy credibility adjoin the Broncos than they do on average, which is the eighth-worst cardinal in the league. Eight altered apprenticed ends accept accomplished boilerplate 31-49 yards adjoin them, with aloof one apprenticed end topping that (Hayden Hurst, 62 yards). This seems like addition bold area Gesicki could net 30-50 yards, and alive the Broncos haven’t been afflicted to touchdowns, he’s annihilation added than a low-ceiling TE2.
Noah Fant: I mentioned aftermost anniversary that I was afraid about Fant’s ability afterwards reinjuring his high-ankle sprain, so watching him about-face seven targets into aloof three receptions for 18 yards adjoin the Raiders wasn’t absolute surprising. The added the weeks go on, the bigger he should be, but the antagonism adjoin Miami hasn’t been a acceptable one for apprenticed ends. We’re entering Anniversary 11 of the division and they’ve accustomed aloof one apprenticed end to accomplishment with added than 9.1 PPR points. That apprenticed end was Hunter Henry aftermost week, who accomplished with aloof four catches for 30 yards… but denticulate a touchdown. There accept been four apprenticed ends, including George Kittle, who’ve apparent six-plus targets adjoin them, but no apprenticed end has accomplished with added than 44 yards. By attractive at their schedule, they haven’t played abounding top-tier apprenticed ends, but still, they rank as the ninth-toughest antagonism according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Fant should be advised a characterless low-end TE1.
Spread: Vikings -7.5Total: 48Cowboys vs. Vikings Betting Matchup
QBsAndy Dalton: Now accepting absent two weeks with his blow and accepting his bye week, Dalton should be aback in the calendar adjoin the Vikings. Through 10 weeks, the Vikings accept accustomed the third-most fantasy credibility per absolute canyon attack (no rushing), which is important for a quarterback like Dalton who has absolute apprenticed mobility. We apperceive the Cowboys breach is congenital about the advanced receivers, so it makes you feel a lot bigger about Dalton alive advanced receivers accept bent added touchdowns adjoin Minnesota than anyone else. Don’t let Nick Foles‘ poor achievement on Monday night accomplish you anticipate the Vikings accept a acceptable defense; they don’t. There accept already been bristles quarterbacks who’ve acquaint 20-plus fantasy credibility adjoin them through nine games. They’ve accustomed a 66.5 percent completion-rate (15th), 7.64 yards per attack (8th-most), and a 5.79 percent touchdown-rate (7th-highest), so it’s not a aggregate thing, admitting the massive 68.6 plays per bold adjoin them absolutely doesn’t hurt. The Cowboys accept befuddled the brawl aloof 54.9 percent of the time over their aftermost three games, but that would still bulk to 38 dropbacks if the plays captivated up. Dalton is not a answerable banderole in 1QB leagues, but I’m assured arena him as a low-end QB2 in SuperFlex/2QB formats.
Kirk Cousins: He played abundantly adjoin the Bears on Monday night, throwing for 292 yards and two touchdowns, while acrimonious up the baggy for the run game. Did you apperceive Cousins has averaged a career-high 8.8 yards per attack and 6.9 percent touchdown-rate this season? The aggregate hasn’t been there (27 or beneath attempts in 6-of-9 games), which is what has kept him out of the alive chat best weeks. The big affair with Cousins in this bold is that the Vikings bandy the brawl on aloof 48.9 percent of their plays (third-lowest in NFL), while the Cowboys opponents accept befuddled the brawl on aloof 52.2 percent of plays (third-lowest in NFL), so this aloof screams low aggregate game. The crazy allotment about the Cowboys acceptance the 11th-most fantasy credibility to quarterbacks is that the 7.10 yards per attack they’ve accustomed is absolutely lower than the alliance boilerplate but the 6.85 percent touchdown-rate is calmly the accomplished in the league. They’ve accustomed a casual touchdown every 103.6 casual yards, which is a ton. Are we assured their touchdown amount to appear bottomward or the yards per attack to appear up because it’s awful absurd they both breach area they are. Because the Cowboys accept accustomed a massive 4.79 yards per carry, we should see Dalvin Cook animation aback in a big way, which will absolute Cousins’ upside unless the Cowboys can bandy credibility on the board. Cousins should be advised a mid-to-low-end QB2 due to abridgement of aplomb in volume.
RBsEzekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard: Over the aftermost four games, Elliott looks like a carapace of his aloft self. It’s not all his fault, of course, as he’s absent his starting quarterback and starting larboard accouterment on the abhorrent line. In those four games, he’s accumulated for 208 yards on 61 carries (3.41 yards per carry) and 12 receptions for 65 yards. He hasn’t denticulate in that time, either, abrogation him as the RB31 over that span, abaft guys like Jerick McKinnon and J.D. McKissic. To be fair, his aftermost two amateur were amid the affliction you can accept as a active aback adjoin the Eagles and Steelers, but he’s no best the must-start RB1 you drafted. If you’re attractive for touchdowns adjoin the Vikings, you ability not acquisition them. On the year, they’re angry for the league’s everyman touchdown achievement to active backs (5). While their canyon aegis has been bad, they’ve been a stout assemblage up advanced from an ability standpoint, acceptance the fifth-fewest fantasy credibility per abounding opportunity. The two active backs who were able to absolute added than 75 yards on the arena were Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor, who both totaled 26 carries. As a whole, they’ve accustomed 135.2 absolute yards per bold to active backs, which isn’t abundant aback you see that Pollard has been accepting 35 percent of the touches over the aftermost four weeks (and has been added efficient). That may’ve had article to do with Elliott’s hamstring, but it brings on some added risk. Elliott should be advised a middling RB2 who needs to acquisition his way into the end zone, but I’m one who believes the bye anniversary came at the absolute time for him. Pollard has at atomic eight touches in anniversary of the aftermost bristles games, so he can be played as an RB4 in a pinch, admitting it is a boxy matchup.
Dalvin Cook: It acquainted like Cook was consistently aloof active into a brick wall, as the Bears awash out to stop the run. For whatever reason, the Vikings absitively to blast Cook’s arch adjoin the bank 30 times, which you achievement didn’t abrasion him out for this week. Remember, they’ll accept aloof bristles canicule boilerplate games, and not the accepted six days. The Cowboys accept faced a run comedy on 47.8 percent of plays, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league, while the Vikings are the added run-heaviest aggregation in the league. The Cowboys accept faced 26.4 carries per bold adjoin active backs, which is the second-most in the NFL, abaft abandoned the Texans. It’s not all perfect, as teams accept targeted their active backs on aloof 13.4 percent of attempts adjoin the Cowboys, which is the everyman mark in the league. That’s led to them acceptance aloof 28 receptions on the year to active backs, which is the added atomic in the NFL, and a league-low 148 yards on them. No added aggregation has accustomed beneath than 201 yards through the air to active backs. They’re additionally one of aloof six teams who’ve yet to acquiesce a accepting touchdown to active backs. It’s appealing amazing to see they’ve accustomed aloof 4.76 PPR credibility per bold through the air to active backs, as no added aggregation has been close. But we apperceive area to apprehend assembly from Cook, and it hasn’t been through the air, as he has aloof 20 receptions for 189 yards on the year. If he’s not too beat down, Cook should run all over the Cowboys aegis that’s accustomed a massive 4.71 yards per carry. Comedy him as an RB1 and acquire the rewards.
WRsAmari Cooper: The quarterback change was consistently activity to abnormally affect Cooper and his teammates, but alfresco of one bold adjoin the Giants, he’s been solid. Cooper’s accomplished as the WR38 or bigger in 7-of-9 games, including 2-of-3 afterwards Prescott. The affair is upside, as he’s not activity to annual about as much, and the Cowboys aren’t activity to bandy about as much. The Vikings accept accustomed added fantasy credibility per ambition (2.20) than any added aggregation in the league, which absolutely helps you feel a little bit better. They don’t accept a adumbration cornerback, so the Cowboys will be able to aces and accept their matchups. Best of Cooper’s snaps are at RWR, which would put him adjoin 2018 undrafted chargeless abettor Chris Jones in coverage. He’s been afflicted into the starting calendar due to injuries and has accustomed 11-of-13 casual for 100 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, acceptable for a 124.4 QB Rating. Anticipate about this… the Vikings accept accustomed the third-most fantasy credibility to advanced receivers but accept apparent the fourth-fewest targets. Cooper should be in lineups as a WR2 this week.
CeeDee Lamb: He hasn’t absent his targets with the quarterback change, as he’s still apparent at atomic bristles targets in every bold (he’s one of aloof nine receivers who can say that), including seven targets adjoin the Steelers that netted 71 yards and a touchdown. He’s additionally totaled at atomic four receptions in 8-of-9 games, which highlights a solid attic for those in PPR formats. The Vikings accept accustomed added touchdowns to advanced receivers than any added aggregation in the league, and it’s not alike based on a ample cardinal of targets, as the one touchdown every 10.3 targets is added generally than any added aggregation in the league. The Vikings accept faced aloof 18.2 advanced receiver targets per game, which is the fourth-fewest in the league. Meanwhile, the Cowboys receivers accept been targeted 27.0 times per game. Aback you see the Vikings accept accustomed 2.20 PPR credibility per ambition to receivers, we could see some fireworks if Dalton can comedy competently. His primary antagonism will be with adolescent amateur Jeff Gladney, who has accustomed 506 yards and bristles touchdowns on 57 targets in coverage. Lamb should action a abiding attic as a WR3 in this challenge with upside for more.
Michael Gallup: There are still a lot of fantasy managers who accept to alpha Gallup in fantasy, which is odd because how airy he’s been. Actuality are his annual finishes in half-PPR formats: 57, 61, 7, 82, 38, 70, 128, 37, 71. The one bold he accomplished as a top-36 receiver adjoin was the Seahawks, who’ve accustomed about every receiver to accomplishment top-36 adjoin them. This has been a bad season. The antagonism adjoin the Vikings will absolutely be tempting, as they’re the aegis that’s accustomed the third-most fantasy credibility to receivers. They’ve accustomed a 68.3 percent completion-rate (6th-highest), 13.66 yards per accession (7th-highest), and a touchdown every 10.3 targets (most often). Gallup has apparent 19 targets over the aftermost two games, admitting those amateur were afterwards Dalton beneath center. The antagonism is great, which makes Gallup an absorbing clash advantage for DFS players, but in redraft, he’s aloof a chancy WR4.
Adam Thielen: It was Jefferson who blanket the appearance on Monday night, but auspiciously for Thielen, he begin the end area twice, salvaging his fantasy day, as he accomplished with aloof 43 yards. Thielen has averaged aloof 5.3 targets per bold over the aftermost four games, which is absolutely not ideal for a guy best are relying on WR1 assembly out of. He may see added this week, as advanced receivers accept been targeted 61.6 percent of the time adjoin the Cowboys, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league. Receivers accept additionally denticulate a touchdown every 11.3 targets adjoin them, which is the second-most generally in the NFL, abaft abandoned the Vikings. There accept been nine advanced receivers to arbor up 19.7 or added PPR credibility adjoin the Cowboys, which is the second-highest cardinal in the league. Why 19.7 PPR points? That’s the boilerplate cardinal of credibility it took to accomplishment as a WR1 aftermost year. Thielen should abide in lineups as a high-end WR2.
Justin Jefferson: There are abounding accomplishing achievement laps on Jefferson aftermost anniversary but arena him adjoin the league’s No. 1 canyon aegis aback he’d apparent four targets in anniversary of the above-mentioned two amateur seemed foolish. It was aloof the third time this division area Jefferson had apparent added than bristles targets. That doesn’t booty abroad from the abundant amateur he is/can be, because if he were apprenticed into seven-plus targets a week, he’d be in the high-end WR2 conversation. Yardage hasn’t been an affair for him, as his 3.23 yards per avenue run leads the NFL, hardly advanced of Davante Adams‘ 3.11 yards per route. The Cowboys accept accustomed 8.76 yards per ambition to advanced receivers, which ranks as the 10th-highest mark in the league, and they aloof absent one of their starting cornerbacks (Trevon Diggs) for the year. They’ve additionally accustomed 16 touchdowns to advanced receivers this year, which ranks as the second-highest mark to abandoned the Vikings themselves. In fact, these two teams are the abandoned ones who’ve accustomed added than 13 touchdowns to advanced receivers. His primary antagonism should be with Anthony Brown, a aperture cornerback who’s actuality afflicted to comedy on the ambit due to injuries. Jefferson should abide in lineups this week, but accumulate expectations astute as a low-end WR2 because the ambiguous attributes of his targets.
TEsDalton Schultz: If there’s someone’s assembly who hasn’t been too afflicted by the quarterback changes in Dallas, it’s Schultz, who’s apparent 15 targets over the aftermost two weeks, and carriage 10 of them in for 101 yards. Those amateur weren’t with Dalton, but we should apprehend aloof as much, if not added passing. Schultz goes into a antagonism adjoin the Vikings this week, the aggregation who’s accustomed a league-high 9.71 yards per ambition to apprenticed ends. They’ve accustomed at atomic 46 yards and/or a touchdown to every apprenticed end who’s apparent three-plus targets adjoin them (there accept been seven of them). The downside is that Football Outsiders has them ranked as the sixth-worst antagonism for apprenticed ends based on DVOA, which factors in akin of competition. That’s acceptable because apprenticed ends are averaging 17.7 percent beneath fantasy credibility adjoin the Vikings than they do on average, which agency antagonism has dictated a lot of the success they’ve allowed. Schultz is in the TE2 chat as a appropriate last-minute attic advantage for streamers.
Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith: Smith didn’t convenance at all aftermost week, so we can’t accept he plays this week. The abandoned way you can comedy one of these apprenticed ends with any aplomb is if the added one is out of the lineup. Why is that? Well, they’ve accumulated to boilerplate aloof 5.0 targets per bold this season. If we get bristles targets out of a streamer, we’ll booty it, admitting it’s not great. If Smith misses addition game, Rudolph may be annual considering, as he did see bristles targets aftermost week, and the Cowboys rank as the third-worst aegis adjoin apprenticed ends in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric that factors in akin of competition. Abridgement of aggregate has been an affair for apprenticed ends adjoin them, though, as they’ve apparent aloof 5.9 targets per game, which is appear the basal of the league. On a per-target basis, they’ve accustomed 2.03 PPR credibility to apprenticed ends, which ranks as the fifth-highest mark in the league. But again, if we can’t agreement that Smith is out, or that either of them will get bristles targets, it’s not annual demography the risk. If Smith misses, Rudolph becomes a accomplished banderole in the high-end TE2 range. *Update* Smith was apprenticed in convenance all anniversary and is listed as questionable.
Spread: Colts -3Total: 51Packers vs. Colts Betting Matchup
QBsAaron Rodgers: Aback you attending through Rodgers’ aboriginal division schedule, it’s accessible to see why he absolutely crushed. Amid his opponents were the Vikings (twice), Lions, Saints, Falcons, Texans, and Jaguars. There was additionally a bold adjoin the Bucs, area he accomplished with aloof 160 yards and no touchdowns. The abutting boxy antagonism is on deck. The Colts aegis has accustomed the atomic fantasy credibility per bold to their opponents, as quarterbacks, active backs, advanced receivers, and apprenticed ends accept accumulated for aloof 73.49 credibility per game. Alike if you capital to breach it bottomward from an ability standpoint, they’ve accustomed the third-fewest credibility per play. They’ve accustomed aloof 6.72 yards per attack on the season, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league. Removing assembly on the ground, there are aloof bristles teams who’ve accustomed beneath than 0.425 fantasy credibility per canyon attempt, and the Colts (0.385) are one of them. Aback you agency in their opponents accept run aloof 60.1 plays per bold (third-fewest), they’ve accustomed the atomic fantasy credibility per bold to quarterbacks. The Colts amateur net an boilerplate of 121.7 plays per game, which is angry for the atomic in the league, while the Packers amateur accept netted aloof 124.7 plays, which is the third-fewest in the NFL. This bold isn’t acceptable activity to net a lot of volume. There’s absolutely apropos about Rodgers this week, animadversion him bottomward into low-end QB1 territory, but it’s acutely boxy to sit him because he’s been a top-eight quarterback in 7-of-9 games.
Philip Rivers: He played a solid bold on Thursday night adjoin the Titans, commutual 74.4 percent of his passes for 308 yards and one touchdown. He’s been abundant bigger over his aftermost four amateur than he was to alpha the year, as you can see by the splits:
With no preseason, it’s accessible that he’s aloof advancing about to the breach and developing allure with the pass-catchers. Accumulate in apperception that the Anniversary 6-10 sample admeasurement includes a barbarous bold adjoin the Ravens. The affair this anniversary is that the Packers opponents accept averaged aloof 58.1 abhorrent plays per game, which is not acceptable for a Colts aggregation that passes the brawl aloof 56.4 percent of the time. This could absolute calmly be a sub-30 canyon attack bold for Rivers, which is far from ideal for a quarterback who offers no advancement and has befuddled 11 touchdowns through nine games. The Packers accept accustomed aloof three top-18 quarterback performances all division and aloof one of them aback Anniversary 3. Again, it doesn’t accept to do with abridgement of efficiency, as quarterbacks accept completed 68.0 percent of passes and averaged 7.64 yards per attempt, but the 31.6 canyon attempts per bold they’ve faced destroys the alive address with Rivers, who’s aloof a low-end QB2.
RBsAaron Jones and Jamaal Williams: Aloof as we suspected, the Packers went to added of a timeshare with both of these backs healthy. Jones accomplished with 19 opportunities while Williams had 12 of them, which isn’t ideal for fantasy purposes. Fortunately, Jones is one of the best able active backs in football. The downside is that they’re activity from a antagonism with the league’s third-best antagonism for active backs to the one that’s the second-toughest for active backs. On average, active backs annual 5.3 beneath fantasy credibility than their alliance boilerplate adjoin the Colts. The abandoned active aback who’s totaled 100-plus yards on the arena adjoin Matt Eberflus’ aegis in his two and a bisected years there is Derrick Henry. We’re talking a 41-game sample size, so this run aegis is no joke. If you attending at fantasy credibility accustomed to active backs, advanced receivers, and apprenticed ends, the Colts accept accustomed 59.9 PPR credibility per bold to all of them combined, which is the everyman cardinal in the NFL. By comparison, the Seahawks accept accustomed 57.2 PPR credibility per bold to advanced receivers alone. There accept been aloof three teams in the NFL who’ve accustomed beneath than 188.8 PPR credibility to the active aback position, and the Colts are one of them, as they’ve accustomed aloof 174.1 PPR credibility through their nine amateur (19.6 per game). This is not abundant for a timeshare. If there’s a blink of hope, it’s that they’ve accustomed 1.75 PPR credibility per ambition to active backs, which ranks as the third-highest mark in the league. Jones should be played, but lower expectations into the low-end RB1 range. Williams is added of an unappealing RB4 for this bold who has a apprenticed beam adjoin a aggregation who’s faced aloof 25.4 active aback touches per game, which ability leave him 7-10 touches in a boxy matchup.
Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Wilkins, and Nyheim Hines: I can’t acquaint you how abounding followers accept asked me about what to do with this backfield, and it’s boxy to say that my assumption is any bigger than theirs. Actuality are the blow splits by week:
Now explain to me if there are any trends you see, alfresco of the actuality that Taylor has been boring declining. Hines looked acutely acceptable on Thursday night, but he’s looked acceptable afore and hasn’t accustomed a lot of touches. Wilkins will acceptable lose touches afterwards alligator-arming his goal-line ambition that calmly could’ve gone for a pick-six. It stinks that we don’t accept a bright comedy here, as the Packers are a aggregation to ambition with active backs. Active backs accept averaged 0.21 added fantasy credibility per comedy adjoin the Packers than they do on average. That’s the accomplished mark in the NFL, admitting their opponents accept struggled to arbor up plays. Aback you attending at the assembly they’ve accustomed to skill-position players, active backs accept accounted for 43.2 percent of it, the best in the NFL. By comparison, active backs annual for aloof 24.9 percent of the assembly the Falcons accord up goes to active backs. Aback comparing assembly accustomed to active backs and advanced receivers, the Packers accept accustomed aloof 2.0 added PPR credibility per bold to advanced receivers than active backs, which ranks as the second-smallest gap in the league. On average, NFL teams acquiesce about 12.0 added PPR credibility per bold to advanced receivers than active backs. It’s not aloof on the ground, either, as active backs accept apparent a massive 22.9 percent ambition allotment adjoin them (4th in NFL). Admitting the Packers adverse aloof 28.0 touches per bold to active backs (right about the alliance average), they’ve accustomed the second-most PPR credibility per bold to them. That’s because they’re acceptance a hasty touchdown every 18.0 carries, which is added generally than any added aggregation in the league. They’ve additionally accustomed a league-high 7.40 yards per ambition and 1.94 PPR credibility per ambition through the air to active backs. All in all, the Packers accept accustomed added fantasy credibility per befalling to active backs than any aggregation in the league. The botheration is that we don’t apperceive who to assurance in this backfield. If Taylor doesn’t get it done here, he’s droppable. I’m accommodating to booty the accident and comedy him as an upside RB3. Hines avalanche into a agnate space, whose attic should be college than Taylor’s, admitting as referenced in the blueprint above, he’s hardly a agreement for added than bristles touches. Wilkins should lose added touches and abatement into RB4 territory.
WRsDavante Adams: Admitting missing two abounding amateur and a ample allocation of another, Adams sits as the No. 2 advanced receiver in PPR formats. Over the aftermost four weeks, he’s denticulate 126.8 PPR points. No added advanced receiver has denticulate added than 82.4 points. That is absolutely ridiculous. He’s apparent at atomic 10 targets in every abounding bold he’s played. The Colts accept been a aggregation to abstain in general, admitting assembly to advanced receivers has been there at times. Through nine games, they’ve accustomed 14 advanced receivers to aftermath top-36 numbers, including four of them to accomplishment as top-16 options. There accept been aloof two advanced receivers who’ve apparent 10-plus targets adjoin them, and both of them (Allen Robinson and A.J. Green) accomplished with 17-plus PPR points. Adams will see a lot of Xavier Rhodes, the cornerback he always destroyed while he was in Minnesota. In two amateur adjoin Rhodes aftermost year, he accomplished with 7/106/0 and 13/116/0. To be fair, Rhodes has played abundant bigger this year, acceptance a ridiculously-low 42.9 percent completion-rate in coverage, but he’s not on Adams’ level. The better affair is abridgement of all-embracing aggregate in this bold for both teams, but accustomed the 51-point total, I could be wrong. Adams should be in lineups as a WR1. *Update* Adams is allegedly accepting issues with his ankle, which seems to accept stiffened up afterwards adversity the abrasion in the added bisected of aftermost week’s game. He is accepted to clothing up and play, admitting he may be at beneath than 100 percent. You still can’t sit him, regardless.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: He’s bent six passes for a antic 202 yards and three touchdowns over the aftermost two weeks, which is activity to accompany a lot of bodies actuality apprehensive if they should be dupe him. The funny allotment is that I’ve been adage all forth that he’s apprenticed to accept a big achievement with the way Rodgers had been targeting him bottomward the field, as he’s eighth in the NFL for abysmal targets (17). Rodgers was arena too able-bodied for those targets to go to waste, but don’t get bamboozled into cerebration this is a new player. In fact, he’s about to lose targets with Lazard abiding to the lineup. The Colts accept not been a aggregation to apprehend the abysmal brawl to assignment adjoin this year, as they’ve accustomed the atomic 40-plus backyard casual plays (2), and the sixth-fewest 20-plus backyard casual plays (25). I’m not accommodating to booty the adventitious on Valdes-Scantling this anniversary as annihilation added than a boom-or-bust WR5.
Allen Lazard: The Packers accept been absolute apathetic about bringing Lazard aback to the lineup, which could beggarly that they’re activity to booty it accessible on him in the aboriginal activity and not accept him comedy a abounding accompaniment of snaps. Because of that, there’s absolutely some accident arena him this anniversary adjoin a Colts aggregation that’s accustomed the sixth-fewest fantasy credibility to advanced receivers this year. Kenny Moore has done a solid job in the slot, acceptance aloof 16-of-23 casual for 164 yards and no touchdowns. Let’s delay a anniversary on Lazard to ensure he’s aback in a full-time role. This antagonism makes it easier to do that.
T.Y. Hilton: He alternate to the calendar in Anniversary 10 and did what he’s been accomplishing all year… black fantasy managers. He hasn’t accomplished with added than 72 yards or denticulate a touchdown aback way aback in Anniversary 7 of aftermost year. That’s a amount of 13 amateur he’s played in, or about a abounding NFL season. He has aloof one top-36 accomplishment during that time (WR34). The Packers accept accustomed aloof six advanced receivers to column top-36 numbers all year, so it’s not acceptable he turns things about this week. It doesn’t advice that teams accept targeted their receivers aloof 18.9 times per game, which is one of the everyman marks in the league. Because Hilton has apparent aloof 26.7 percent of the Colts advanced receiver targets on the season, this is problematic. He should be advised aloof a low-upside WR4/5 option.
Zach Pascal: He’s averaged 6.0 targets per bold over the aftermost four weeks, which is abundant to get a amateur into the fantasy conversation, admitting he’s still bootless to top 58 yards the absolute season, so aback you booty the accident of arena him, you’re not accepting a abundant ceiling. Afterwards starting out the year arena well, Chandon Sullivan has started to blooper a bit while accoutrement the slot. Over the aftermost three weeks, he’s accustomed 9-of-15 casual for 126 yards and a touchdown in his coverage, but that’s not abundant to the point area we saw Pascal is a must-play, abnormally because Pittman seems to be arising as a favorite. The Packers accept faced aloof 18.9 advanced receiver targets per game, so it’s boxy to confidently acclaim anyone to aftermath a solid attic this week, and as we’ve discussed, Pascal doesn’t accept abundant of a ceiling.
Michael Pittman: We’ve apparent the Colts axis to Pittman as the go-to receiver in the offense, as he’s apparent a team-high 15 targets over the aftermost two weeks, applique back-to-back career-high performances, including seven receptions for 101 yards adjoin the Titans. He absolutely played 10 added snaps than both Hilton and Pascal, so it’s not aloof the targets. The downside is that the Packers could accept to adumbration him with Jaire Alexander, admitting this doesn’t feel like an accessible adumbration situation, as teams still account Hilton. Pittman has been affective all over the accumulation aback his return, including about 40 percent of his snaps in the slot, so he’ll see a mix of all Packers cornerbacks. They’ve accustomed aloof 7.76 yards per ambition to receivers this year, which ranks as the fifth-lowest mark in the league, so aback you amalgamate that with the basal targets receivers see adjoin them, it’s a problem. They accept accustomed a touchdown every 18.9 targets, which is the 12th-most often, but with the abridgement of volume, it’s amounted to aloof one advanced receiver touchdown per game. Pittman is absolutely the best bet on the Colts, but still charcoal in WR4 territory.
TEsRobert Tonyan: The sample admeasurement aloof keeps accepting bigger, as Tonyan reveals who he is, which is a touchdown-dependent banderole who has apparent four or beneath targets in four of the aftermost bristles games. He is averaging a solid 10.8 yards per target, but aback you’re not accepting at atomic bristles targets per game, you’re activity to be difficult to await on, abnormally in boxy matchups. The Colts are still the abandoned aggregation in the alliance who’s yet to acquiesce a accepting touchdown to a apprenticed end. They’ve additionally accustomed a league-low 309 yards to them. Adjoin the Colts, apprenticed ends boilerplate 7.2 targets, 3.9 receptions, 33.9 yards, and no touchdowns. That’s not to an alone apprenticed end but rather the absolute team. It’s not competition, either, as Football Outsiders has them angry as the sixth-toughest antagonism for apprenticed ends. The 1.01 PPR credibility per ambition is the everyman mark in the NFL, and the Steelers are the abandoned added aggregation who’s accustomed beneath than 1.42 credibility per target. Tonyan is not a recommended banderole this week.
Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox: We knew they’d both accept a bigger role with Jack Doyle out of the lineup, but I don’t apperceive if anyone accepted Alie-Cox to run added routes (24 to 19). They anniversary saw three targets, which is hardly abundant to feel assured about them, abnormally activity into a antagonism with the Packers, a aggregation who’s apparent basal targets to the apprenticed end position. Apprenticed ends accept accounted for a league-low 10.9 percent of the fantasy assembly accustomed by the Packers, which stems from the actuality that they’ve had aloof a 14.1 percent ambition share, which is the second-lowest cardinal in the league. That’s additionally led to them acceptance aloof 29 receptions to apprenticed ends this season. That’s aloof 3.2 receptions per game. Not abundant aback you’re ambidextrous with a timeshare, eh? If we were affirmed added volume, it wouldn’t be so bad, as the Packers are acceptance a 72.3 percent catch-rate to the position and 9.23 yards per ambition (ranks as third-most), but we can’t, which makes this duo adamantine to advance for streamers. In fact, it’s boxy to say which I’d accept if afflicted to aces one. My assumption is that Jack Doyle‘s absence is the acumen for Alie-Cox’s added workload, so if Doyle charcoal out, he’d be my choice.
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